Updating my analysis with some additions of some key levels to watch for as price makes it's way higher.
I do think
NVDA
is going to become more volatile over the coming few weeks as it works it's way to the top resistance levels.
Even though price seems to be forming a H&S top, I'm not sure that we break down here.
I think the most likely scenario is that price moves up to the midpoint at $993-1008. If it breaks it, we likely see the highs at the upper resistance levels. If it can't break that level, it sets up a move down to the lower supports. If those supports hold, then it'll set up one final move to the upper resistance levels.
My base case is move to midpoint, reject and then a final move to the highs. But reality is, price can take a number of paths from here. You'll want to long the lower supports, reduce risk at the middle supports and sell the top levels.
Let's see how it plays out over the coming month.
I do think
NVDA
is going to become more volatile over the coming few weeks as it works it's way to the top resistance levels. Even though price seems to be forming a H&S top, I'm not sure that we break down here.
I think the most likely scenario is that price moves up to the midpoint at $993-1008. If it breaks it, we likely see the highs at the upper resistance levels. If it can't break that level, it sets up a move down to the lower supports. If those supports hold, then it'll set up one final move to the upper resistance levels.
My base case is move to midpoint, reject and then a final move to the highs. But reality is, price can take a number of paths from here. You'll want to long the lower supports, reduce risk at the middle supports and sell the top levels.
Let's see how it plays out over the coming month.
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Bought 4/26 1130 strike calls. Let's see if we get a bounce later in the day today.
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This should be the bottom right here. A break below this level would be cause for concern.
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There is a possibility that we do hit the lower support on the initial reaction to CPI tomorrow, but then I think it's likely we rally from there.
Let's see...
Let's see...
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Leaning towards seeing one more move lower tomorrow to the lower support level and then a bounce higher from there (maybe on Thursday or maybe after initial CPI reaction tomorrow).
Will add more calls and will post what date and strike I end up choosing should this play out.
Will add more calls and will post what date and strike I end up choosing should this play out.
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Looking like the dip is getting bought. I bought more of the same options and added $1100C for 4/26
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Bottom should be in. Options now in profit.
Hope we see a strong move over the next couple of weeks. Good luck to all.
Hope we see a strong move over the next couple of weeks. Good luck to all.
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NVDA broke out of downtrend channel and is holding above it.
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Not looking good. Cut my positions. Going to be patient and see if we hit the bottom supports.
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Okay first support tagged. Going to wait till next week to go long. Still think it's likely we see the bottom support.
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Welp, getting the bottom much faster than I thought we would. Likely going to be multiple retests here, good place to start accumulating.
I like options out to 5/10 to the upside.
I like options out to 5/10 to the upside.
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I think the long side move could top out around $804-833 so watch for a rejection there. I'm worried that there's a possibility of one more leg down to around the $695-721 region. Going to wait to see if that region gets hit before taking longs.
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Will likely flip short tomorrow. Move might go as high as $844. Will try to get an entry between $833-844.
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Spot on so far, I haven't gotten an entry yet on a short. Trying to be patient and wait for another retest of $844
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Welp missed the short opp this morning. Will wait to see what happens and will buy the low if it happens.
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Bought some $750 puts for tomorrow and 5/3 expiration on this bounce.
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Also bought a $805 P for tomorrow expiration here
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Probably flipped a bit too early. Likely NVDA gets a retest at $834. Probably a better place to get more entries.
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That might've been it. Let's see...
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If we don't get the move down in the next few hours, I'll likely cut the puts, because there's a possibility that we retest the range highs and then fall next week instead.
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Approaching that $834 level... that's where I'd lighten up if you're long or scale in if you want to short.
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Let's see what happens here. So original idea I thought this region would be the bottom.
We broke below it, came back above it and retested $789 this morning and so far support held.
MSFT had a positive reaction which further helped the bull case.
Now as long as we don't break the $789 level to the downside, higher is the better probability outcome.
My puts will likely expire worthless, but it is what it is. Let's see what happens tomorrow into next week.
We broke below it, came back above it and retested $789 this morning and so far support held.
MSFT had a positive reaction which further helped the bull case.
Now as long as we don't break the $789 level to the downside, higher is the better probability outcome.
My puts will likely expire worthless, but it is what it is. Let's see what happens tomorrow into next week.
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Bulls also need to break the $844 level. So $789-844 is no trade zone.
Break either level and price should trend in that direction.
Break either level and price should trend in that direction.
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Even though we've broken up over $844, the chart doesn't look great for more upside (at this time). I'm waiting to see what happens next week before taking any new positions.
I think next week could have major downside in the market so being cautious.
I think next week could have major downside in the market so being cautious.
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As of now, thinking rug pull coming soon and that we'll still hit that $695 level by end of next week... something feels off.
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Next resistance is $900. Let's see if it gets all the way up there, if it does, I'll take puts.
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Price seems to be rejecting here. After relooking at the chart, I think the higher probability outcome, rather than getting down to $695 is to sweep the prior lows at $754 and go to $736. There's strong support there, so that's where I'd expect a bounce. If we get a bounce there, then I think we'll continue the uptrend to the final targets.
That's the level where I'll be selling my $750P for 5/3, should it happen.
Let's see how it plays out next week.
That's the level where I'll be selling my $750P for 5/3, should it happen.
Let's see how it plays out next week.
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Bought some $800P for 5/3 at open.
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Also bought some $780P for 5/3
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All options in profit now, except for $750P (added more this morning).
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Now up:
200%+ on $800P
150% on $780P
12% on $750P
200%+ on $800P
150% on $780P
12% on $750P
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Still looking for $736 target to the downside. That's where I'll start scaling into the long side.
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Price action today is a lesson in why you don't chase moves even if it goes against your bias. The FOMC move higher was largely reversed by end of day.
Let's see what happens tomorrow. Same bias remains as of now.
Let's see what happens tomorrow. Same bias remains as of now.
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There's a possibility of one more $860 test, then we see what happens after that.
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Welp, guess this trade will all come down to AAPL earnings. The chart to me still doesn't look like it's ready for upside, we fell short of the $860 resistance and price looks to be rejecting here.
That said, not sure if we'll get the big down tomorrow or not. Might not happen till next week (or might not happen at all).
It is what it is. Let's see.
That said, not sure if we'll get the big down tomorrow or not. Might not happen till next week (or might not happen at all).
It is what it is. Let's see.
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If I relook at the chart above and hit play, price swept the lower region, and has found support at both lower support levels forming higher lows. Unless we get one big sweep of those levels over the next few days, I have to switch my bias to being bullish and we should be looking at the upper resistance levels as targets.
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Not doing anything at the moment. Just observing price action, want to give it a few more days for price action to play out.
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Risky trade, but added some $840, $820 and to my $800s this morning.
Okay w/ losing it as it's high likelihood that it doesn't play out.
Okay w/ losing it as it's high likelihood that it doesn't play out.
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Lose this level here and it's likely to get ugly quickly.
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The level is $872
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Welp short idea was wrong. As I said yesterday, if I press play at the chart, we went below support reclaimed it and have been forming higher lows since. There still might be a larger pullback but from here on out, dips are for buying.
Focusing the bullish move to the upper resistances from here on out.
Focusing the bullish move to the upper resistances from here on out.
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Update:
Think we're likely to see $965-993 level in the coming days. Then think a short opportunity will present itself into CPI/earnings.
Let's see how price action shapes up the rest of the week.
Think we're likely to see $965-993 level in the coming days. Then think a short opportunity will present itself into CPI/earnings.
Let's see how price action shapes up the rest of the week.
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Bought some options on the dip this morning (high risk):
$940
$950
$965
$1000
5/10 exp
$940
$950
$965
$1000
5/10 exp
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Ended up selling these at open. Looks like the market is about to roll over. Already have puts out to next week. Let's see how price action shapes up the rest of the day.
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Hoping we get one more pop higher in the morning tomorrow to sell into.
The breakout of the bull flag, rejection of resistance at $907 and then price moving down through the flag was the indication that this is most likely to head lower from here.
Personally, I think the market is moving sideways to bring in more buyers before dumping.
I'd like to see one more test of $907 tomorrow to confirm that level as resistance. Let's see if we get it.
Big picture, at this point in time, I'm expecting price to move down into earnings and then I expect the last leg higher to come after earnings into June/July for the top (I'll update as price action continues to play out).
The $734 and $695 levels are still of interest to me, not sure if we get that low yet though. Going to take it day by day. We've been chopping around a lot-- hoping we finally trend in a direction.
Likely won't update this until we get a big move in either direction.
The breakout of the bull flag, rejection of resistance at $907 and then price moving down through the flag was the indication that this is most likely to head lower from here.
Personally, I think the market is moving sideways to bring in more buyers before dumping.
I'd like to see one more test of $907 tomorrow to confirm that level as resistance. Let's see if we get it.
Big picture, at this point in time, I'm expecting price to move down into earnings and then I expect the last leg higher to come after earnings into June/July for the top (I'll update as price action continues to play out).
The $734 and $695 levels are still of interest to me, not sure if we get that low yet though. Going to take it day by day. We've been chopping around a lot-- hoping we finally trend in a direction.
Likely won't update this until we get a big move in either direction.
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Update: Still think we're going lower. I added to puts at $950 yesterday and rolled options into next week. I have $900, 860, 800. So far, starting to work.
I think the down move is most likely to happen between now and May 22, then we see a pop higher after earnings.
Been tricky to get the timing right, hopefully this trade makes up for the burned premium. *Fingers crossed*
I think the down move is most likely to happen between now and May 22, then we see a pop higher after earnings.
Been tricky to get the timing right, hopefully this trade makes up for the burned premium. *Fingers crossed*
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The pivot date on the chart is on the 22nd and since price action has been positive going into the pivot, it increases the odds that price will put in a high on that date and move lower afterwards. I originally thought that we'd move down into the pivot and then earnings would send price higher, but now I'm learning towards price moving higher into the pivot and moving down after.
If we do move up tomorrow, and break $950, price is likely to move to the midpoint on the chart, $993 -1008 region by Wednesday.
Going to keep on building a put position into strength.
If we do move up tomorrow, and break $950, price is likely to move to the midpoint on the chart, $993 -1008 region by Wednesday.
Going to keep on building a put position into strength.
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$993 tagged by Wednesday. Now let's see what happens next.
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Updated idea. Same target, slightly different path to get there.
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Looking like the first resistance target should get tagged today or tomorrow. Good place to take profits if you're long.
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Likely that we go all the way to the top resistances today/tomorrow. Good place to take more profits or exit as this should be the top of NVDA.
I started a new put position yesterday morning at open. It's up 18% so far. Will continue to add if we get up to the top resistance. The rejection and move down should be a very quick one.
Thinking 30% decline from top to short term bottom.
Let's see.
I started a new put position yesterday morning at open. It's up 18% so far. Will continue to add if we get up to the top resistance. The rejection and move down should be a very quick one.
Thinking 30% decline from top to short term bottom.
Let's see.
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Looking like we've rejected at the first resistance. With the Trump jail news, news about US reigning in NVDA chip sales to the middle east, and Biden okaying Ukraine shooting rockets into Russia, think that was likely the top (at least for now). Markets likely pull back hard tomorrow into next week.
Think the above chart shared on May 24th is the most likely outcome based on today's price action.
Puts now up 65%.
Think the above chart shared on May 24th is the most likely outcome based on today's price action.
Puts now up 65%.
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I expect the top resistance to be tagged today or tomorrow which should mark the top for of the cycle for NVDA. I expect there to be a large, sharp pullback after the top resistance gets hit.
Will add to my put position up there.
Will add to my put position up there.
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If we do not hit the top resistance today or tomorrow, then there is likely a large pullback and one more push into the high in July.
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Top.
Will update if I take the trade.