NZDJPY: The Case for Shorts – Key Fundamentals and Timing

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The New Zealand Dollar to Japanese Yen (NZDJPY) pair is currently showing bearish potential due to several key fundamental factors. Japan's upcoming fiscal year 2024/2025 wage negotiation results, expected on March 15, could strengthen the yen if wage increases meet or exceed expectations.

Additionally, the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision on March 19 may signal a shift away from negative interest rates, potentially boosting the yen.

Meanwhile, New Zealand's economy faces headwinds from a cooling housing market and slowing global demand for its exports. The yield premium of New Zealand bonds over Japanese bonds has been shrinking, reducing the attractiveness of holding NZD.

My overall bias for NZDJPY is bearish based on these factors.
I'll be using probability-based analysis to determine optimal entry points.

Currently, I'm waiting for the probability of a bearish move to exceed 50% before considering an entry.

12M:

1D:

Hourly timeframes:


Please feel free to share your ideas and comment below!