NZD/USD Short on potential Gartley pattern, the final leg CD

I just love these Gartley Harmonic patterns, XABCD. They are just so clear. NZD/USD had a massive first leg of this pattern XA, nearly 600 pips and then the next two legs of the pattern (AB & BC) seem to have completed, beautifully. Now, a potential 78.6% retracement of first leg XA, in the form of last leg CD, should be the logical next move, if the harmonics stay true. That will be a 300-pip move down for this pair from here. Once the pair hits point D, the pair may rally higher again, provided USD weakness prevails in the coming months.

Giao dịch đang hoạt động:

Since publishing this idea, the pair moved 150 pips lower (half of what was predicted by harmonic pattern). Almost tempted to close the trade, as there is a huge event tomorrow--RBNZ, policy announcement. That puts huge uncertainty to this trade. I still think odds favor a lower NZD. I don't think Wheeler & the CB desires higher NZD. So, with USD on the move higher (hawkish Fed), and "potentially dovish" RBNZ, this pair could decisively move lower to 0.70. I really hope so!

Bình luận:

RBNZ policy event, just 4hrs to go. So, be very careful. Right now, NZD is not showing any sign of fear of dovish comments from the central bank.