It's this time of the year again, and once again RTS is going down while SPX sets a new high. Then all indices are supposed to crash after payrolls and Chinese NY. All looks just like the last year, but the problem is that markets never repeat themselves: whatever looks "just like the last time" will eventually turn very dissimilar.
This means that the crash will either happen much faster than LY - China starts selling Treasuries after holidays and all crashes in 2 weeks, or will happen much slower (taking the entire Feb and Spring), or won't happen at all for some reason.
Anyways, all instruments are ready for a big drop, the EUR is reversing, the EUR crosses move in a very correlated way with Treasuries as I had expected, and VIX is ready for a big spike after after payrolls.
This means that the crash will either happen much faster than LY - China starts selling Treasuries after holidays and all crashes in 2 weeks, or will happen much slower (taking the entire Feb and Spring), or won't happen at all for some reason.
Anyways, all instruments are ready for a big drop, the EUR is reversing, the EUR crosses move in a very correlated way with Treasuries as I had expected, and VIX is ready for a big spike after after payrolls.
