The Russel has yet to hit new highs while the market keeps climbing. This is usually a bearish sign but has seen 2 fake-outs in the 10 year trend line where the RUT is simply under-performing the S&P.
Once the multiyear trend line is breached there is a heightened risk of recession.
The XLK is moving the market just like what we seen in the dotcom era. What we seen back then was a failure in tech and a heavy increase in the XLE. So watch for a trend flip in tech vs energy.
The home builders, small caps, and financials are the first to decline in a recession. These are all declining while the market moves upward.....
Also if oil and natural gas (XLE) start to do well this will be a leading indicator that there is a recession upcoming.
I think the start of this will be the rise in commodity prices. The laggers will become the leaders. Watch for an upturn in the DBC and the XLE.
Once the multiyear trend line is breached there is a heightened risk of recession.
The XLK is moving the market just like what we seen in the dotcom era. What we seen back then was a failure in tech and a heavy increase in the XLE. So watch for a trend flip in tech vs energy.
The home builders, small caps, and financials are the first to decline in a recession. These are all declining while the market moves upward.....
Also if oil and natural gas (XLE) start to do well this will be a leading indicator that there is a recession upcoming.
I think the start of this will be the rise in commodity prices. The laggers will become the leaders. Watch for an upturn in the DBC and the XLE.