Weekend Update VERSION 2: Off by one degree?
In my original Weekend Update I stated...
"Deciphering overlapping moves is a complicated exercise. Truth be told sometimes these patterns do not reveal their correct identity till there almost complete. As of right now I'm still expecting this bottom to complete in a 3 wave move. This "a" wave is a little long and had a micro ending diagonal to complete. I like to count waves in as simple a fashion as possible. However sometimes it's no so easy."
I was struggling to understand why we're continuing to extend downward when I said this "a" wave is a little long. By re-examining the chart, it appears not only was I off by one degree, under my revised count, unless wave 4 and 1 overlap it cannot be an ending diagonal. This "a" wave I was struggling with is a "III" to complete wave 3. This means that we will need a wave 4 and 5 to complete this pattern. Wave 4 would need to reach $98 to overlap with wave 1. This is not out of the question but I would consider this an alternative count.
The simplest way to count this wave is as an impulsive wave within a larger A,B,C within an even larger wave 4. That means we need a wave 5 next. I am no longer looking for $170 on Solana. If in fact this does not become a prolonged ABC within this wave 4, wave 5 should reconcile at the next most probable Fibonacci level within the initial impulse which is the 2.618% level at $423. (see this chart under the post VERSION 3)
I will follow up this morning update with a long-term chart to show how this would reconcile all 5 waves.
Originally I was counting this corrective decline from the ATH of $259.995 as a larger A wave. My call to $170 would be a "B" wave and the ensuing "C" to complete wave 4 would reconcile in the $50-$70 range. It appears this may be all of wave 4 and we may be headed to that range now. I have 2 alternative pathways listed in the above chart. Purple is secondary and orange is the least probable but all possibilities.
I apologize to my followers for the mistake. Headed to $50-$70 range is a hard pill to swallow, and after spending a great deal of time looking at charts, and anguishing over being incorrect in my analysis I had to inform the traders who put their trust in me. As a holder of Solana it's hard to hold an investment that was just at $143 down to $50-60...but such is nature of speculation and being wrong in one's analysis.
It's not the first, nor will it be the last time I'm wrong.
Best to All,
Chris
"Deciphering overlapping moves is a complicated exercise. Truth be told sometimes these patterns do not reveal their correct identity till there almost complete. As of right now I'm still expecting this bottom to complete in a 3 wave move. This "a" wave is a little long and had a micro ending diagonal to complete. I like to count waves in as simple a fashion as possible. However sometimes it's no so easy."
I was struggling to understand why we're continuing to extend downward when I said this "a" wave is a little long. By re-examining the chart, it appears not only was I off by one degree, under my revised count, unless wave 4 and 1 overlap it cannot be an ending diagonal. This "a" wave I was struggling with is a "III" to complete wave 3. This means that we will need a wave 4 and 5 to complete this pattern. Wave 4 would need to reach $98 to overlap with wave 1. This is not out of the question but I would consider this an alternative count.
The simplest way to count this wave is as an impulsive wave within a larger A,B,C within an even larger wave 4. That means we need a wave 5 next. I am no longer looking for $170 on Solana. If in fact this does not become a prolonged ABC within this wave 4, wave 5 should reconcile at the next most probable Fibonacci level within the initial impulse which is the 2.618% level at $423. (see this chart under the post VERSION 3)
I will follow up this morning update with a long-term chart to show how this would reconcile all 5 waves.
Originally I was counting this corrective decline from the ATH of $259.995 as a larger A wave. My call to $170 would be a "B" wave and the ensuing "C" to complete wave 4 would reconcile in the $50-$70 range. It appears this may be all of wave 4 and we may be headed to that range now. I have 2 alternative pathways listed in the above chart. Purple is secondary and orange is the least probable but all possibilities.
I apologize to my followers for the mistake. Headed to $50-$70 range is a hard pill to swallow, and after spending a great deal of time looking at charts, and anguishing over being incorrect in my analysis I had to inform the traders who put their trust in me. As a holder of Solana it's hard to hold an investment that was just at $143 down to $50-60...but such is nature of speculation and being wrong in one's analysis.
It's not the first, nor will it be the last time I'm wrong.
Best to All,
Chris
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