SPX: Rally until Nov 20...then brace yourselves
Looks like we have a confirmed uptrend signal here, which is what I expected to happen since the market created a big support level indicating the smart money absorbed the last crash.
It's interesting that for most people, it borders on lunacy to be long risk ahead of the POTUS elections, but it seems to be the right thing to do. I suspect we will get a Trump victory, with the market moving higher steadily until Nov 20th, roughly.
The crash that follows might be of significant proportions, as the post COVID world brought forth many problematic changes to fundamentals, making the current rally unsustainable, once we go back to normal and end lock downs globally. Without some miracle, I think we will see interest rates go up, inflation rear its ugly head and markets gyrate in a large volatile sideways range similar to the one that took place from 1997 to 2011. In such an environment, it won't be easy to generate returns from investments in equities, and we might see commodities outperform equities, value outperform growth, and many other relative performance trends reverse course (like the long US Tech, short the world trend) which a deflationary world allowed to exist. Stock picking and market timing will make a big difference in this new world.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
It's interesting that for most people, it borders on lunacy to be long risk ahead of the POTUS elections, but it seems to be the right thing to do. I suspect we will get a Trump victory, with the market moving higher steadily until Nov 20th, roughly.
The crash that follows might be of significant proportions, as the post COVID world brought forth many problematic changes to fundamentals, making the current rally unsustainable, once we go back to normal and end lock downs globally. Without some miracle, I think we will see interest rates go up, inflation rear its ugly head and markets gyrate in a large volatile sideways range similar to the one that took place from 1997 to 2011. In such an environment, it won't be easy to generate returns from investments in equities, and we might see commodities outperform equities, value outperform growth, and many other relative performance trends reverse course (like the long US Tech, short the world trend) which a deflationary world allowed to exist. Stock picking and market timing will make a big difference in this new world.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
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The remaining index ETFs and individual stocks that were pending bullishness started to act very strong already. Up we go, as per my original analysis:
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#SPX target is now 3030.78, since the bullish signal we had in the weekly chart failed.
Might be a sharper move than this, but this is the minimum downside target.
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