While we all use two and four hour data to draw trend lines an/or draw patterns, I firmly believe the market is driven by longer time frames.
In looking at daily prices with the ribbon of moving averages, there is no sign of an imminent collapse as we saw last summer and last winter.
We need to see at least two major cycles or waves in which a lower high and a lower low is made with the ribbons bound together and pointing down.
And in past cases, the market has been kind enough to retest a high with the averages are moving down. That is the time to make the big short as distinguished from a trade.
You might miss 15 to 30 points, but on a big move down who cares.
Short term I am bullish but longer term am a bear.
In looking at daily prices with the ribbon of moving averages, there is no sign of an imminent collapse as we saw last summer and last winter.
We need to see at least two major cycles or waves in which a lower high and a lower low is made with the ribbons bound together and pointing down.
And in past cases, the market has been kind enough to retest a high with the averages are moving down. That is the time to make the big short as distinguished from a trade.
You might miss 15 to 30 points, but on a big move down who cares.
Short term I am bullish but longer term am a bear.