- Inflation still high
- Index at maximum price and high P/E
- Big investors who don't usually sell are selling (James Dimon, Zuckerberg, Bezos)
- Greedy market
- Inversion in the yield curve
- Leading Economic Index signaling crisis
We are 5 months going only up and strong. I'm out of the stock market for now, waiting a correction at least at the 0.382 fib retraction of this bull run. MACD and MFI (and RSI) are streched.
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And honestly, the world is changing and rearranging itself, it's becoming less globalized with all the recent tensions and conflicts: Russia and Ukraine, terrorism in the Middle East, China and Taiwan, the Chinese real estate market and confidence in the country crumbling, the European Union focusing on military power...
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Three black crows?
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I think that investors are not used to high real US interest rates and that there will be a normalization of the yield curve, which is currently inverted. Which will lead to a significant drop in the index price, perhaps greater than the 0.382 fib retracement, that I mentioned earlier. Furthermore, there will be American elections this year, which could make the markets unstable.