SPY - Bear hunting season
Macro outlook has changed since last year. Fed carried the QE for too long. Surplus easy $$$ caused 40yr high inflation. Now, fed wants to fight inflation with QT. $ not going to be easily available.
GDP is already down this year. Few big companies are missing earnings. The index chart has printed a HnS pattern. Further downside is a reminder of 2008/2000 bubble busts.
Fed is now stuck between 2 challenges.
1. Fight inflation with tight $, leading to deflation/recession. This is the bearish situation.
2. Give up quickly on the inflation fight due to recession outlook, and resume easy money. This is a less bearish situation.
3. The elusive soft landing. This claim could be along the same lines as the transitory inflation.
GDP is already down this year. Few big companies are missing earnings. The index chart has printed a HnS pattern. Further downside is a reminder of 2008/2000 bubble busts.
Fed is now stuck between 2 challenges.
1. Fight inflation with tight $, leading to deflation/recession. This is the bearish situation.
2. Give up quickly on the inflation fight due to recession outlook, and resume easy money. This is a less bearish situation.
3. The elusive soft landing. This claim could be along the same lines as the transitory inflation.
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