The Spy Who Shagged Me
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Hey guys, I hope everyone had an awesome weekend. Let's get right into today's analysis:
US Futures managed to stage a notable rebound on Sunday night, after an ugly close on Friday when the bulls lost key weekly, and monthly supports. We were up about half a percent into the US cash open, but have since erased most of the overnight gains. Circling the MSM today are interesting headlines about how the Trump administration is distancing themselves from Syndey Powell, who is apparently getting ready to drop a "bombshell" voter fraud lawsuit against Georgia as early as this week. I suspect Trump and his team are trying to create the illusion of distance here so the case seems as independent and unbiased as possible. I wish them luck with that. We're also seeing headlines about more "Vaccine Hopes," which just puts a smile on my face everytime I see this price action narrative. Wash, rince, repeat...
In a recent report, JP Morgan analysts, off the back of Goldman's recent report on month-end rebalancing (of over $35 Billion), say they're anticipating an even larger and more vicious sell-off into year end. They're expecting a correction, which they say would position the FED for further easing/dollar debasement into 2021. Total forced selling by year-end is estimated to be over $300 Billion according to the report. Imo this could bring the entire house (of cards) down, with market depth currently the worst it's been since the March crash.
SPY is looking particularly fragile today as the bears continue to defend the long-term (megaphone) trendline. But, we all know the bulls are not going anywhere. I suspect if we successfully fill any of the gaps above this week, it will be quickly met with relentless miracle bids. That's not necessarily a bad thing, as the increased volatility could set us up for some fruitful short-term trading opportunities heading into December. I'm watching the 355 level as daily support, as I'm seeing us skipping on top of an ascending triangle formed from the Nov 5th high. If we lose this level, we may see a sharp sell-off down to the 350 area, where the first gap is sitting, along with the top of the previous triangle, and the 21 day EMA at 351.07. That's pretty heavy support, but it's not exactly a stone's throw away from current levels...
Stay tuned for live updates throughout the day, and sincere thanks for your viewership guys, I appreciate all the support. If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. Cheers, Michael.
US Futures managed to stage a notable rebound on Sunday night, after an ugly close on Friday when the bulls lost key weekly, and monthly supports. We were up about half a percent into the US cash open, but have since erased most of the overnight gains. Circling the MSM today are interesting headlines about how the Trump administration is distancing themselves from Syndey Powell, who is apparently getting ready to drop a "bombshell" voter fraud lawsuit against Georgia as early as this week. I suspect Trump and his team are trying to create the illusion of distance here so the case seems as independent and unbiased as possible. I wish them luck with that. We're also seeing headlines about more "Vaccine Hopes," which just puts a smile on my face everytime I see this price action narrative. Wash, rince, repeat...
In a recent report, JP Morgan analysts, off the back of Goldman's recent report on month-end rebalancing (of over $35 Billion), say they're anticipating an even larger and more vicious sell-off into year end. They're expecting a correction, which they say would position the FED for further easing/dollar debasement into 2021. Total forced selling by year-end is estimated to be over $300 Billion according to the report. Imo this could bring the entire house (of cards) down, with market depth currently the worst it's been since the March crash.
SPY is looking particularly fragile today as the bears continue to defend the long-term (megaphone) trendline. But, we all know the bulls are not going anywhere. I suspect if we successfully fill any of the gaps above this week, it will be quickly met with relentless miracle bids. That's not necessarily a bad thing, as the increased volatility could set us up for some fruitful short-term trading opportunities heading into December. I'm watching the 355 level as daily support, as I'm seeing us skipping on top of an ascending triangle formed from the Nov 5th high. If we lose this level, we may see a sharp sell-off down to the 350 area, where the first gap is sitting, along with the top of the previous triangle, and the 21 day EMA at 351.07. That's pretty heavy support, but it's not exactly a stone's throw away from current levels...
Stay tuned for live updates throughout the day, and sincere thanks for your viewership guys, I appreciate all the support. If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. Cheers, Michael.
Ghi chú
Vix contiunues to trade sideways around 23, as we hover above the March lows (21.50). We've now been monkey hammered by over 40% since the beginning of November. Gotta love that FED Put...Ghi chú
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Hourly view of the SPY, as we trade perfectly below the megaphone resistance line...Ghi chú
Ghi chú
Powerful short squeeze here at the top of power hour. I didn't realize there were any shorts left to squeeze? We just kissed the 50 period MA on the hourly (358.13), which is sitting right around the Megaphone trendline. After Friday's ugly close, the message from the bulls is clear; they're here, and they're ready for whatever the bears have in store...Ghi chú
Ghi chú
Let's see if the bears have anything to say after this convincing move by the bulls...Ghi chú
Starting to look like an outside reversal candle. Immediate weakness above the megaphone resiatance. The bears are responding: Looky, but no touchy...Ghi chú
So Biden picks ex-Chair of the FED, Janet Yellen, for Treasury Secretary? I hope she finally puts the 99% first. Lol...Ghi chú
There's a battle happening beneath the surface, as evidenced by the sharp rise in volume into the close. The bulls want to take the megaphone back, but clearly the bears have built a wall of sell orders at this resistance. this could get ugly if the bears start to chase the price...Ghi chú
Ghi chú
I could just see Powell at his desk right now relentlessly hitting Ctrl+P...Ghi chú
That's a wrap folks! The bears defended the megaphone, once again, and will live to fight another day. Forecast for tonight: 100% chance of Johnny Walker. See you guys tomorrow. Cheers!
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