All eyes on May FOMC, SPY likely bounce next week
I am still holding my double bottom bounce thesis here since my last post. A lot of people is betting on a crash on Monday, after Friday's brutal red day. But I think a crash won't happen.
Adding to my bull thesis is the fact that the GDP has gone to negative (-1.4%) already. And AAPL/AMZN ERs kinda sucked. That will change some minds at the FOMC.
This is an CNBC interview with FED's Daly 10 days ago (at which point things were still quite rosy):
cnbc.com/2022/04/20/feds-daly-says-the-economy-can-handle-rate-hikes-but-a-mild-recession-is-possible.html
"""
Asked later whether she considered a mild recession to be the equivalent of a soft landing or acceptable outcome, Daly said her outlook is for the economy to slow to “something that looks like below-trend growth, but not tip into negative territory, but could potentially tick into negative territory.”
"""
She did not expect GDP to go negative when she supported the many 50 points rate hike plan. Would she change her mind now? Possible.
There will be head fakes to throw traders off, that's for sure.
I could be wrong, in which case I will cut my lost quickly if the trend breaks down.
Adding to my bull thesis is the fact that the GDP has gone to negative (-1.4%) already. And AAPL/AMZN ERs kinda sucked. That will change some minds at the FOMC.
This is an CNBC interview with FED's Daly 10 days ago (at which point things were still quite rosy):
cnbc.com/2022/04/20/feds-daly-says-the-economy-can-handle-rate-hikes-but-a-mild-recession-is-possible.html
"""
Asked later whether she considered a mild recession to be the equivalent of a soft landing or acceptable outcome, Daly said her outlook is for the economy to slow to “something that looks like below-trend growth, but not tip into negative territory, but could potentially tick into negative territory.”
"""
She did not expect GDP to go negative when she supported the many 50 points rate hike plan. Would she change her mind now? Possible.
There will be head fakes to throw traders off, that's for sure.
I could be wrong, in which case I will cut my lost quickly if the trend breaks down.
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