SPY Be careful about MM's.
There are a lot of things to talk about.
We enjoying a huge bull run, over 6% green nonstop. There are two things we should remember: everything is being driven by big money flow, and there is no retail FOMO yet. Additionally, we cannot expect common sense to rule the market. It will follow what big investors want. We are pointing right into that 401 gap, but with let's say "not so publicly shared" algorithms, we can expect a small pullback before crossing it. There will be a lot of sell orders placed at 400, so it should be heavy to cross. Like it already happened at ES. So I'm expecting a rejection at 400, then a slow rise untill 402. If you are into day trading tomorrow should be your day. It will probably happen early next week or at FOMC, right at the peak of the upward trend, if we don't fill it tomorrow.
Here's something important, FOMC will probably announce a rate hike at 50 bps or 75 bps, both sadly priced in already, but why? Due to the fact that it isn't 100 (and according to a recent survey, 98/102 prestigious economists expect a rise of 50/75 bps, while only four expect a rise of 100 bps). I think we could end above 409-413 on Tuesday. Here's the strong point. If there are no huge prints these coming days, then the move will not fall significantly at any point. Because everything is rigged, if there are no big prints, no changes.
Now something you guys should know, and it's very important. (Im not into crypto stuff, because it's a massive scam. The info is there, you just need to make some research) BUT that's not the point so you can keep reading even though you think otherwise.
Let's get into it. Bitcoin makes a really important role in market overall sentiment. Why do you think Bitcoin has been rising that much? It's because someone has been buying almost all the selling since June. Yes, there's only one buyer of Bitcoin on Bitfinex, (a really significant exchange) is a single trader using fake Bitfinex dollars to absorb all of the selling.
In place of printing Tether (which allows you to purchase and sell cryptocurrency within the Exchange platform, without losing the value of the investments) they print margin loans to buy bitcoin. Yes, they are doing this. So it means this position is virtually IMPOSSIBLE to unwind if it's real.
Why does this happen? Why do they allow that? Easy and it will trigger you, because the stock market should've crashed in June. Bitcoin these days is really significant to the WHOLE economy. Bitcoin would have been decimated if they had allowed the massive selloff last month using real money to pay it back. I can't place links here but: bitinfocharts c0m/bitcoin/wallet/Bitfinex-coldwallet
Why do I talk about this? Because all that margin they have been its massive, massive debt money. The only way to get some off of it is by pushing or doing squeeze on the Bitcoin price so they can close some positions. Here's the big deal. They can't let bitcoin crash down 17k again because there would be a crippling and immense margin call, so they are trying to get it up to +30k again. If they do, the market will follow most of it.(I know it's dumb, but it's the most likely scenario). Big money knew it, algos started right the same time Bitcoin. So we got two possible outcomes:
Market rises another min. +4% following it, I don't think they will be able to squeeze bitcoin much, since everything they have is fake and easy to hide. They will keep the price up, sell what they can to stop losses so whales can get out of their positions before it all implodes.
- MM's managed to kill lot % of short volume already these two last weeks, turning again everyone bullish so they can drop it like it's hot in a most powerful and deep fall. This could happen but they can't hide it at all. If they do I will notice it. It's simple, those who have more shares will always have more force for price changes than those who have less, and even in private exchanges almost everything has to be declared so in this scenario they would crash it to 350's-360's min. and then repeat to below 300. What if they don't want it to happen yet? The macros have been impressive and somehow "orchestrated" looking to many, so it's easy to figure out they wouldn't let all of this happen to a 17% fall YTD.
Long term I stay bearish, a lot. I wouldn't be really long into this market yet. I doubt the bottom is in, if that were the case you would see more FOMO and media trying to push it upwards. Did you see any news regarding VIP's purchases yet? Then it ain't already over. Remember aswell, bad guidance/earnings by Huge global banks, Microsoft, Fcb and lot of international bluechips saying worse is coming. There's place for more rally but we are still in a bear market.
No financial advise**
We enjoying a huge bull run, over 6% green nonstop. There are two things we should remember: everything is being driven by big money flow, and there is no retail FOMO yet. Additionally, we cannot expect common sense to rule the market. It will follow what big investors want. We are pointing right into that 401 gap, but with let's say "not so publicly shared" algorithms, we can expect a small pullback before crossing it. There will be a lot of sell orders placed at 400, so it should be heavy to cross. Like it already happened at ES. So I'm expecting a rejection at 400, then a slow rise untill 402. If you are into day trading tomorrow should be your day. It will probably happen early next week or at FOMC, right at the peak of the upward trend, if we don't fill it tomorrow.
Here's something important, FOMC will probably announce a rate hike at 50 bps or 75 bps, both sadly priced in already, but why? Due to the fact that it isn't 100 (and according to a recent survey, 98/102 prestigious economists expect a rise of 50/75 bps, while only four expect a rise of 100 bps). I think we could end above 409-413 on Tuesday. Here's the strong point. If there are no huge prints these coming days, then the move will not fall significantly at any point. Because everything is rigged, if there are no big prints, no changes.
Now something you guys should know, and it's very important. (Im not into crypto stuff, because it's a massive scam. The info is there, you just need to make some research) BUT that's not the point so you can keep reading even though you think otherwise.
Let's get into it. Bitcoin makes a really important role in market overall sentiment. Why do you think Bitcoin has been rising that much? It's because someone has been buying almost all the selling since June. Yes, there's only one buyer of Bitcoin on Bitfinex, (a really significant exchange) is a single trader using fake Bitfinex dollars to absorb all of the selling.
In place of printing Tether (which allows you to purchase and sell cryptocurrency within the Exchange platform, without losing the value of the investments) they print margin loans to buy bitcoin. Yes, they are doing this. So it means this position is virtually IMPOSSIBLE to unwind if it's real.
Why does this happen? Why do they allow that? Easy and it will trigger you, because the stock market should've crashed in June. Bitcoin these days is really significant to the WHOLE economy. Bitcoin would have been decimated if they had allowed the massive selloff last month using real money to pay it back. I can't place links here but: bitinfocharts c0m/bitcoin/wallet/Bitfinex-coldwallet
Why do I talk about this? Because all that margin they have been its massive, massive debt money. The only way to get some off of it is by pushing or doing squeeze on the Bitcoin price so they can close some positions. Here's the big deal. They can't let bitcoin crash down 17k again because there would be a crippling and immense margin call, so they are trying to get it up to +30k again. If they do, the market will follow most of it.(I know it's dumb, but it's the most likely scenario). Big money knew it, algos started right the same time Bitcoin. So we got two possible outcomes:
Market rises another min. +4% following it, I don't think they will be able to squeeze bitcoin much, since everything they have is fake and easy to hide. They will keep the price up, sell what they can to stop losses so whales can get out of their positions before it all implodes.
- MM's managed to kill lot % of short volume already these two last weeks, turning again everyone bullish so they can drop it like it's hot in a most powerful and deep fall. This could happen but they can't hide it at all. If they do I will notice it. It's simple, those who have more shares will always have more force for price changes than those who have less, and even in private exchanges almost everything has to be declared so in this scenario they would crash it to 350's-360's min. and then repeat to below 300. What if they don't want it to happen yet? The macros have been impressive and somehow "orchestrated" looking to many, so it's easy to figure out they wouldn't let all of this happen to a 17% fall YTD.
Long term I stay bearish, a lot. I wouldn't be really long into this market yet. I doubt the bottom is in, if that were the case you would see more FOMO and media trying to push it upwards. Did you see any news regarding VIP's purchases yet? Then it ain't already over. Remember aswell, bad guidance/earnings by Huge global banks, Microsoft, Fcb and lot of international bluechips saying worse is coming. There's place for more rally but we are still in a bear market.
No financial advise**
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