SPY, SPX, the Markets right now.

21 thg 1, 2022

Hello Traders,

Every once in awhile there are times where I think every trader might want to take a step back and look at the macro-environment, even the technical traders.

Historically, midterm years do often have pullbacks - they usually have their affects later in the year; however, we're seeing that midterms are relevant now. Within this macro-environment. This pullback is quite similar to the one we had in Sept/Oct. Pay attention to that Daily 200 or Weekly 50.

Bulls hope for a bounce, Bears want a break, of course. IF there is one, I'm looking at around 434, 426, 417. If we bounce here or shortly after here: 447, 450, maybe around 460 before some churn PA (range bound price action). Remember: these years are more volatile, so caution is key, maybe half your normal risk.

With all of that said, so far, the price bounced almost to the penny off the trendline I drew last night and a fib on my algo. I also calculated a max price drawdown estimate from the chart pattern (worst case scenario) it's only a little bit lower, right on the Daily 200 about 438.96.
Another personal guess: after today slow decline over a few days to to 434-8ish then a small bounce, small pb, then return to uptrend, but I'm getting way ahead with data we don't have yet, so we shall see what the 1st move is and go from there.

Cheers,
Mike