Looking at the chart, you can see that a huge pattern was formed, which correlates well with the time period in which the fed began to hike rates. In the right shoulder, we can see a formation that has sent TLT lower, completing the shoulder and breaking the ever-so-important uptrend (in red) which has been intact since 2011. As someone who is short, this is exactly what I want to see. Keep in mind that this is a weekly chart, so each candle represents a week of trading. On the , we've got a crossover, and sell-side is beginning to dominate the chart. Technically, the neckline of the pattern hasn't broken yet. You can see that it's the black in the pattern. If/when that falls, the next stop should be the 50% retrace, then the 618 below that, and then my ultimate target of $101. Given the size of the pattern, a correction to it's full potential could send prices into the $80s. Personally, I am long the Jan 20 100 strike puts. Going forward, we may see TLT test the bottom of the rising red , to confirm it as new resistance before heading lower.
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But with the stock market reaching a potential top here around 2018 (too early) to 2019, the money will flow back to Bonds just like it did in the opposite direction (from 2016 the top to 2017 the trough).
Since the Bond has been in a long term bullish trend, and the H&S neckline is still intact, it might be a little early for a collapse yet.