MagicPoopCannon

The Next Great Collapse — BONDS! (TLT)

NASDAQ:TLT   Ishares 20+ năm Trái phiếu kho bạc ETF
Hi friends! Today, I'd like to step away from crytpocurrenceis, to review a market has maintained my interest — bonds! Specifically, we're reviewing the weekly chart, for the TLT             , which is the 20 year T-bond             ETF . Personally, I have held long term put options against the TLT             , for a couple months now. As you know, I don't particularly care too much for fundamental news, but in this case, it is important to note that there is a massive bubble in the bond market. Unless you've been living under a rock, you know that the Federal Reserve has maintained an ultra-low interest rate policy, artificially suppressing the short-term interest rates, to stimulate economic growth. This, coupled with unprecedented Quantitative Easing, was the boon that rescued U.S. markets from the Great Recession of 2008. With that said, you can think of bond yields and interest rates as opposites on a teeter totter. When bond yields rise, interest rates fall, and vice-versa. We know that the fed is now steadily increasing rates at 0.25% a hike. As the fed continues to hike rates, the artificial pressure will be removed, and yields should rise sharply. As the yields rise, prices will fall, thus pricking the bubble that the fed was forced to create, in order to save the economy. That's the thesis anyway. Let's compare that to what we see on the chart.

Looking at the chart, you can see that a huge head and shoulders pattern was formed, which correlates well with the time period in which the fed began to hike rates. In the right shoulder, we can see a head and shoulders formation that has sent TLT             lower, completing the shoulder and breaking the ever-so-important uptrend support level (in red) which has been intact since 2011. As someone who is short, this is exactly what I want to see. Keep in mind that this is a weekly chart, so each candle represents a week of trading. On the MACD , we've got a bearish crossover, and sell-side volume is beginning to dominate the chart. Technically, the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern hasn't broken yet. You can see that it's the black trendline in the pattern. If/when that falls, the next stop should be the 50% retrace, then the 618 below that, and then my ultimate target of $101. Given the size of the head and shoulders pattern, a correction to it's full potential could send prices into the $80s. Personally, I am long the Jan 20 100 strike puts. Going forward, we may see TLT             test the bottom of the rising red trendline , to confirm it as new resistance before heading lower.

This has been your not-so-humble market wizard, droppin' knowledge like bombs in this place! Please follow, comment, like, and share on social media. Good luck trading everyone!

***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***

-MPC loves you-

-JD-
Sounds very solid reasoning on the interest rate part. I cannot disagree on that.
But with the stock market reaching a potential top here around 2018 (too early) to 2019, the money will flow back to Bonds just like it did in the opposite direction (from 2016 the top to 2017 the trough).

Since the Bond has been in a long term bullish trend, and the H&S neckline is still intact, it might be a little early for a collapse yet.
Phản hồi
Is this the most solid investment that you know about? I have always heard that bonds as a safe haven. Gold and Silver manipulated to go no where? so that's no good. Need some options since bankers fu'd us on crypto then stocks. Very nice move to say the least. Brilliant. Did not see that coming in Feb.
Phản hồi
Great seeing analysis outisde of cryptos. Thanks mate.
Phản hồi
Poop... you always see "shoulder, head, shoulder"

= <


Phản hồi
Actually great news for the whole world. The crash will hopefully kill FIAT and therefore the banks!
Phản hồi
chasells AndersBitcoinSorensen
@AndersBitcoinSorensen, Theres no killing the banks. There always in control ... only the illusion we can.
+3 Phản hồi
2018/2019 cryptos will moon. 100.000 usd value each bitcoin or Litecoin is not unwarranted in 2019.
Phản hồi
Any crash outside of crypto will only benefit cryptos, great news.
Phản hồi
predig AndersBitcoinSorensen
@AndersBitcoinSorensen, Not too sure how you make logical sense of that Anders, if there is a crash in the "everything bubble" of today, and if interest rates rise like they are expected to (and they won't be a controlled rise if the Bond Market collapses) do you really think money will pour into something as speculative as Crypto? When people need to get money out, Crypto will be the first to fall, you are seeing signs of that now.
+2 Phản hồi
I have everything in stocks and mutual funds.....nothing in bonds at the moment. The way the market is at the moment......should I start moving $$$ into bonds to give myself some protection this year....if so....which ones? Age 53 year....looking to retire around age 60.
+7 Phản hồi
VI Tiếng Việt
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
SV Svenska
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 简体中文
ZH 繁體中文
AR العربية
HE עברית
Trang chủ Sàng lọc cổ phiếu Bộ lọc Forex Screener Tiền điện tử Lịch kinh tế Cách thức hoạt động Tính năng Biểu đồ Quy tắc Áp dụng Người điều hành Giải pháp cho Website & Nhà môi giới Widget Thư viện Biểu đồ Chứng khoán Yêu cầu tính năng Blog & Tin tức Câu hỏi thường gặp Hỗ trợ & Wiki Twitter
Hồ sơ Tùy chỉnh Hồ sơ Tài khoản và Thanh toán Ticket Hỗ trợ của tôi Liên hệ Hỗ trợ Các ý tưởng đã đăng Người theo dõi Đang theo dõi Tin nhắn riêng Trò chuyện Đăng xuất