Giá lên

TRX/BTC Bottom is likely here potential +400% long term

Hi guys, let me start off by saying I'm not really a fan of Tron I am purely doing this from a TA perspective and not FA. Overall the chart at this point for TRX looks great, clear cut Elliot waves and correction waves. The heavy retrace in the current wave 4 is concerning however taking into account wave 3 took us up over 400% and wave 2 did not retrace much it satisfies the guidelines for Elliot theory nicely (correct me if you see differently).

Now looking ahead the bottom is likely here or will be very shortly, wave A retraced just under the major support and bounced aggressively forming our wave B rally. In wave C we did not get a lower low even with a harder btc dip. This tells me that the bottom actually may have been formed. This theory could be tested if btc has what i believe will be its last dip before correction completion however we will likely only get a double bottom around 380 sats unless btc breaks down hard. If btc breaks down hard and we see 2 closes on the 1 day chart below the major support my wave count is void (violation of Elliot rules) I don't think this will happen but that is my bear scenario and the risks involved in this trade.

If btc has found support i expect TRX to trade sideways for a while before we commence wave 5. Now for wave 5 to be considered a successful impulse wave up thus completing my Elliot wave count it needs to finish above wave 3 (needs to make progress). This means that long term on completion of wave 5 we can expect +400% gain before a heavy correction.

RSI: Still room for it to go down but still oversold currently.

Ill update this analysis if there is any drastic change in the situation.

Thoughts and critiques are most welcome.


I believe tron already completed elliot wave cycle with point 5 being around 2050 sats. You can see that by putting fibs at your first (1 wave) and 4.236 fib is reached.
You should count your ABC as 012 points of the new elliot waves and then put the new fibs for the new targets.
Phản hồi
@michaelkent, Thankyou for the comment, I had tried counts with my wave 3 being wave 5 however these all ended up with wave 3 being the weakest wave which violates elliot rules. My current count has clearly defined sub-waves which is why i chose it for my primary count as well as my wave 3 did not exhibit momentum divergence which is typical and indicative of wave 5 if that makes sense.

In regards to the fibs thank you for pointing that out we should be touching around a 1.0 retrace my mistake which like i said is worrying in terms of wave 4 retracement.
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