The FTSE100 index is selling at a P/E of 17.2. This is quite high in a low interest rate, low growth scenario. The UK is in a mess, with Brexit problems, neighboring countries teetering on recession and Boris taking over the leadership. A DCF valuation of the FTSE100 using 3.2% growth, 8.6% discount rate it shows the index is 11% overvalued. I think the German DAX and US markets are going to tank soon, don't be fooled by the cut in interest rates in the US. The ECB can't really cut rates much more with low or negative rates already in Europe. Negative rates are a desperate attempt to inflate a sagging economy, European markets are ripe for a fall. The FTSE100 has jumped up a bit lately, this is a bull trap above the downward sloping trendline. The technicals are hinting at a coming fall. If you do short, I'd prefer to short the DAX as it has a lot foreign trade exposure with its auto industries. However, for those watching the FTSE100 index, a short now could be a winner.
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Check out the leading economic indicator for the UK - heading south indicating recession coming.
www.conference-.../bcicountry.cfm?cid=2
www.conference-.../bcicountry.cfm?cid=2
