What will yield and markets do after 10yr note auction on 9 Feb?
On an earlier post about the 10yr yield, I marked 1.95 as an upper limit (weekly chart). Price pushed up to 1.97 today. There is a possibility that market markers are keeping bond prices suppressed (yields high) for tomorrow's auction, and then yield will start dropping. Positive correlation still holds, so if this is correct then markets should close lower by Friday and continue into next week.
Key yield levels are marked on the chart. It is possible that markets rise as yields drop back to 1.9% or lower, but at some point if yields keep heading down markets will too.
Key yield levels are marked on the chart. It is possible that markets rise as yields drop back to 1.9% or lower, but at some point if yields keep heading down markets will too.
High inflation does not always mean higher yields. In times of economic trouble (and unpayable amounts of gov't debt) the yield can stay depressed while inflation spikes. In support of this, the 10/2 yr yield ratio has been dropping.