possible range channel forming non the Dow ?

I've been bearish on the s&p and dow for a while now, and had a couple of stings when it jumped after i was expecting it to drop, but if my basic premise is right, what we are approaching isn't so much a market crash, as a longer term ranging correction (that could none-the-less have some violent turns in it). Everything is weighing up to the way-overbought position now, momentum is reducing whilst price is still rising on a vague hope and prayer about China - and there is a general bull-trap feeling of relaxation into the market resuming the uptrend - so my guess is that this is when it is likely to pop. And my guess would be tuesday 19th Feb (after a little surge to touch the top of the new channel forming - if i'm right). good profit to be had in both directions if this is a range. Don't listen to me though - i'm new at this and my success rate has suffered a little recently. Trade safe.