US30 Still Indecisive

The invalidation level on my prior count was hit yet again this morning. I'm keeping an eye on a couple different possibilities. One says the double bottom near the 100% C vs A ends this corrective period and we're turning up from here. The alternative says that point ends only the A wave of a much larger correction that should take us south of 35500. For the immediate future, both of these options would favor at least a temporary period of upside, as even the bearish scenario should settle into a retracement soon.

Bình luận:

A couple other things to consider here: If I've correctly marked the green wave 4, the 38.2% retracement (see the large green area in the bottom of the image) is a reasonable area for the correction to end. If this turns out to be a wave 2, we would normally expect it to push deeper. And then there is also the possibility that my green wave 3 should actually be a 5, and the downward price action from the Nov 8 high is so far just the beginning of a much more significant correction.

I don't take big trades during corrective periods; only scalps down on the 5-15min. The last couple of days have illustrated why. It's very difficult to identify when a correction is actually over. There are so many factors that can contribute to error in corrective counts - wrong degree identification, correction combinations, or corrections that simply morph into larger versions of themselves.

As always, the counts I share are opinions. Trade the trend, not the speculation!