USD/CAD Long (Swing) First idea Post on TradingView

24 thg 5

Hello fellow traders! Today I am making my first post on TradingView. We'll be looking at USDCAD from my perspective hopefully someone can gain some insight or if i am wrong, you guys can share your ideas with me!
This post may seem long to some, Thank you to those who will go through my idea in its entirety.

To begin from a fundamental level

USD is currently bullish as the now all but confirmed higher rates for longer as inflation has picked back up in the last quarter coupled with the resilient US economy. This should give investors faith in a strong dollar at least until the US elections, unless the backdrop of economic conditions change in the US.

CAD is currently dovish with the expectations of a rate cut at the latest in Q3 2024. CAD also released many different statistics this week with almost all of them showing a weakening/constricting economy.

With these economic conditions and the rate divergence outlook I believe USD/CAD is fundamentally bullish.

Now for the technical analysis

A look at the monthly chart:


As we can see we are trending upward since June 2021 making HH's and HL's on monthly timeframe.

Now let's take a look a look at the weekly:


Here we can see it looks as though we are trading in a range from 1.32-33 to
1.38-39 with the past 5 closes and this weeks upcoming close showing strong support at 1.36 but with little conviction to push the price higher immediately.

The daily chart:


On the daily we recently broke out above the channel and retested the breakout at 1.36 while we may see another test of this level, as stated in my fundamental section I believe the recent news is bullish for DXY/USD and bearish for CAD so i believe it will uphold USD/CAD at 1.365 support before a push higher next week to at least 1.38.

I prefer to enter on the 2/4Hr charts using daily/weekly support, however this post is already extremely long for my first post, enjoy!

Thank you to anyone who made it to the end of my idea on USD/CAD, I am gonna start posting more ideas mainly on USD/CAD and a few other major pairs as I believe this may help me organize my own thoughts.

If anyone has any suggestions or different opinions let me know in the reply section. Stay safe trading and always manage your risk.

I am not a financial advisor please do your own research. this is only meant to share my perspective and is in no way guaranteed to be correct. As always anything can happen in the forex markets have a good day everyone!

10 thg 7

Ghi chú

As i had stated when i created this post i believed an additional touch of 1.36200 was possible before continuing upwards. Now a few weeks later we seem to be in the same position. The difference this time is i see a rejection of this level leading us to possibly 1.40000. Trade safely and manage your risk. Hopefully for the uptrend cpi comes in hot tomorrow morning.