May JOLTs Moderately Surprise to the Upside

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According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, the May Job openings report surprised to the upside, rising by 8.14 million (4.9%), up from April’s downwardly revised print of 7.92 million (4.8%), a three-year low. As per the Reuters poll, recent data surpassed the market's median estimate of 7.91 million and came within striking distance of the upper estimate range of 8.30 million, sparking a short-term bid in the dollar.

Job openings in state and local education increased by +117,000; a sizable jump in job openings in the manufacturing sector was also seen, particularly durable goods, up +97,000, with a fall in job openings in accommodation and food services, down nearly -150,000.

Hiring ticked higher in the month of May, up 5.76 million, or 3.6% from April’s reading of 5.62 million, or 3.5%.

The quits rate, which assesses US workers who voluntarily left their current employment, remained at 2.2% for a seventh consecutive month, or 3.5 million. A higher quits rate can indicate confidence in the economy, while fewer resignations suggest less confidence in one's ability to seek employment.

Regarding layoffs and discharges – involuntarily separated from employment initiated by the employer rather than the employee – job openings remained unchanged at 1.0% for a third consecutive month, or 1.7 million.

We have seen a decline in both job openings and quits since peaking at just north of 12 million in early March 2022, emphasising a cooling economic landscape. Today’s release reflects resilience in the labour market, with the increase in job openings indicating demand for workers.

Market Reaction

The US Dollar Index witnessed a moderate bid in the immediate aftermath of the release, reaching a high of 105.90. US Treasury yields also spiked higher, with spot gold (XAU/USD) taking a hit and dropping to within close proximity of daily lows, and US equities all but overlooked the print.

USD/JPY In Sight

The US dollar (USD) has been trading at its most substantial level versus the Japanese yen (JPY) since the 1980s, and, interestingly, shows no signs of slowing down. Since early May, the USD/JPY has rallied six weeks out of eight, showcasing its robustness. Year to date, the pairing is up an eye-watering +15%.

Demand for the USD can be attributed to a revival in US Treasury yields and major US equity indices circling record highs. Further, the Fed is one of the more hawkish central banks in the G10 pack at the moment, and BoJ officials have yet to intervene in the market. Interestingly, Vanguard recently commented that there is a risk of the USD/JPY rising to ¥170 should the BoJ fail to intervene.

Short-term price action on the H1 timeframe is seen treading water just north of trendline support, extended from the low of ¥155.72, which happens to converge with a ‘local’ potential descending support line, taken from the high of ¥161.28, as well as the 50-hour simple moving average, trading at ¥161.26, and a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio from ¥161.17. Chart pattern enthusiasts may also acknowledge the recent double-top pattern (¥161.74) completion, found after the H1 close below the black dashed line, drawn from the low of ¥161.41. Should price go on and hit the double-top pattern’s take-profit target at ¥161.07, this could deliver an additional floor of support.

Tomorrow, we will see the latest ADP non-farm employment change report and the weekly jobless claims numbers, followed up with Friday’s government non-farm employment change print.