it is in contradiction with what you are expecting from eurjpy .... or it would need a spectacular drop on eurusd (and not eurjpy) to compensate the rise of usdjpy
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Cullinan2018 lapin_eliott
@lapin_eliott, I am at pains to make sense of the forex market. But one interesting thing I heard is that when ¥ falls, it really drops like a bad habit.
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lapin_eliott Cullinan2018
@Cullinan2018, situation will get much more tricky now. i mean by that that we could experience a rare but totally possible situation where usd and jpy will both be the two superstars which means that all Xusd and Xjpy pairs will fall strongly, the only remaining question will be usdjpy itself ?! well usdjpy will be just slightly bearish as jpy will slightly overpower usd but both will have the same role approximately on what is going to happen on forex markets. do not forget that recently jpy was dropping against every currency except usd and now jpy is rising against everything, so the natural outcome is to see a slowdown in usdjpy drop with some corrective upmove but globally staying bearish till 100 and under and for all the other pairs of type Xusd or Xjpy it will be indistinctively drop drop and again drop. the situation the market is trying to bring is usd king ... and yen emperor.
the COT data is strongly advocating for a strenghtening of jpy, the commercial traders all over the world are historically and massively positionned for a rise of jpy, the asset managers are just beginning to be long jpy (the first time in years, it indicates the very beginning of a strong change in market behavior)
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Cullinan2018 lapin_eliott
@lapin_eliott, insightful info.
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lapin_eliott Cullinan2018
@Cullinan2018, the behavior of chf could be tricky too, do not forget that there are only two types of currency, the type 1 (usd jpy and chf) and the type 2 (all the others, even eur is not in the group 1). what we should be seeing now is a general strengthening of the group 1, which of course raise the question of the mutual move whithin this group (usdchf chfjpy usdjpy). anyway in that case the best deal will be to give up trading on usdjpy chfjpy and usdchf to avoid the chaotic corrective move that will happen on these pairs and focus on Xusd, Xjpy, Xchf (for X different of usd, chf, jpy) and being short for all of these pairs
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