ridethepig | KRW 2020 Macro Map

18 thg 12, 2019

Korea's economy looks set to be forming a meaningful floor in Q4 and with a helping hand from a temporary pause in protectionism we should see KRW remain in bid for the first half of 2020.

For the domestic story, Korean exports have fallen which spilt over to the demand side. With this in mind, should the USD devaluation / reflationary theme pick up pace for the first half of 1H20 it will mean repricing in KRW. On the monetary side, cuts are widely priced from BoK for January. Fundamental risks to the thesis com from US-China trade and the significance of USD devaluation.

On the technicals, a textbook Steel Resistance has held at 1219.xx after completing an ABC target sequence. Very high odds a meaningful top is in place and invalidation to this count comes in above 1200.

Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions and etc. Another round of 2020 FX maps coming over the next few sessions. For those wanting to dig deeper with the 2020 strategies:

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