USDRUB - How much weakness will Russia tolerate?
The USDRUB blow up was something we can compare to the big USDJPY move. The difference is that this was not due to a change in monetary policy. Of course RUB will not weaken forever. From time to time the Russian Central Bank tries to block the sharp wekness. They have already spent huge amounts on FX intervention, but of course it was not enough to stop or reverse the blow up. At some point I think they will hike rates... or maybe it will be someone else, let's assume President Putin who simply softens a bit the rethoric and plays a bit more friendly in politics. In that case USDRUB will very quickly reverse.
On the Gas front they seem to be less agressive against Ukraine now. Some news I read about Russia's real FX reserves: according to German intelligence sources Russia was very smart and accumulated a lot more FX and Gold reserves during last few years than the amounts officially published. So it looks like the sanctions against them hurt the EU more than Russia. On the top of this last week they surprised mkt with a lot better than expected macro number: Ret sales 1,7 % vs 1,5 % exp., Industrial Production 2,8 % YoY vs 0,2 % YoY expected.
So from now I think we have to monitor this pair more closely. And while we monitor it, why not to sell a really small here at the "so far all time high top"? :-) Small game, but as you see the wholeworld is back to risk on again, and at least you can place a really tight stop :-)
But speaking more prudently watch the 4 Hrs chart:
Chikou may hit Price candles, so there is small chance for a top here. The one and only Key level is 40,25-40,30. That will be the reversal point in case!
If you trade, trade very very small sizes, as volatility in this pair is extreme.
p.s.: DMI on 4 Hrs is totally misleading. Probably Due to the long wicks and large intraday swings it stayed bearish while price was trending up.
On the Gas front they seem to be less agressive against Ukraine now. Some news I read about Russia's real FX reserves: according to German intelligence sources Russia was very smart and accumulated a lot more FX and Gold reserves during last few years than the amounts officially published. So it looks like the sanctions against them hurt the EU more than Russia. On the top of this last week they surprised mkt with a lot better than expected macro number: Ret sales 1,7 % vs 1,5 % exp., Industrial Production 2,8 % YoY vs 0,2 % YoY expected.
So from now I think we have to monitor this pair more closely. And while we monitor it, why not to sell a really small here at the "so far all time high top"? :-) Small game, but as you see the wholeworld is back to risk on again, and at least you can place a really tight stop :-)
But speaking more prudently watch the 4 Hrs chart:
Chikou may hit Price candles, so there is small chance for a top here. The one and only Key level is 40,25-40,30. That will be the reversal point in case!
If you trade, trade very very small sizes, as volatility in this pair is extreme.
p.s.: DMI on 4 Hrs is totally misleading. Probably Due to the long wicks and large intraday swings it stayed bearish while price was trending up.