With Turkey's entry into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the policies implemented in the country, trade movements, etc. I expect the price to go down in the long term with the interventions to be made on the exchange rate in the range that I have indicated with the red line. New government elections will be held next year, and in order to secure the current government seat, the fall of the dollar in Turkey will be beneficial for them. It is not investment advice.
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I wanted to update because we came to the date range I specified. According to Elliot, we should do the abc wave in the daily period, today, despite the interest rate cut, there has not been much movement on the dollar, which strengthens my analysis. It may take time to go down to the 10-11 TL range, or it may not go down at all, it may stay horizontal and rise again, but I expect a long-term decline until at least 12-13 liras. It is not investment advice. Note to myself.
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I understand all the comments under the post, don't get me wrong if I don't answer, everyone wants to see it from their own eyes, I respect your ideas. Every time the central bank lowered the interest rate, there was an upward movement on the dollar, and on the day I mentioned almost a month ago, the central bank made another interest rate cut (in the days I mentioned, there was no news about such an interest rate cut, etc.), moreover, this time, 150 bps, despite this reduction, the price also decreased. There was no rise, so what does that mean? As anyone with a little bit of math knowledge can understand, the dollar also fell, with the exchange rate that did not move while the interest was being lowered. If the exchange rate remains constant every time an interest rate cut is made, it means that there is a decrease again this time. I wanted to write at length because it is a subject that should not be considered as the price has remained constant. It is not investment advice.
