I circled the two gap ups we had recently in yellow. The second one is harder to see, but it originally looked like an exhaustion gap. However, we're in a weird gray zone right now at 53, but I think if an hour candle closes above $53.3 then there will be a quick move to 44, before being quickly rejected. I think this would have to happen tomorrow before API because this is the bearish fundamental season.
Stop at $53.05
If this works I'll sell half at $54.00 and wait to see if you can unload at 54.15 ish if people can force out a short squeeze.
On the other end, I still see 55 as a ceiling so I think it's smart to add heavily on shorts from 54 up. I've NEVER seen an oil gap not get filled eventually. Hello 51.3 :D
Stop at $53.05
If this works I'll sell half at $54.00 and wait to see if you can unload at 54.15 ish if people can force out a short squeeze.
On the other end, I still see 55 as a ceiling so I think it's smart to add heavily on shorts from 54 up. I've NEVER seen an oil gap not get filled eventually. Hello 51.3 :D
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This theoretical idea seems to be working well except that it would have been stopped out. If I had bought in starting around 52.86 when I was writing this up and used a 1.2$ target distance and a 0.40$ stop it would have done much better. Oil is pretty volatile though, tight stops in the future are not great-- duly noted.
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Also, waiting for solid trade validations seems to be not a great idea either.