Oil breakout - How many trade signals should i take?

31 thg 7, 2014

Oil failed long - short reverse at higher low.
The signal short was also chopped - but not currently a loss.
Could easily continue down past yesterdays low and towards some distance level or price... The MT Auto Fib Grid indicator maps the market at the levels and the MT range grid shows when typical daily range has been met...

I prefer to make these entries on a fixed length range 10 bar - but the analysis here is relevant but the profit opportunity on variable length bars can pose problems for profits...

So are we going to build a congestion zone sideways.... until the US Session?
Or break up and down in the Pre-Market? how do we know... well price cycles give us a clue... and other supporting nuances such as trend and levels of S/R on the bigger picture.
Also... What reports can affect it?

Thursday could be a choppy non-event day... but also price could rally back to yesterday's breakout zone or 101...
Wait for a signal - or wait on the side-lines to see a congested days or two and then trade...

How many signals should i take?
We don't know till it happens - the signals will get you in... 3 signals per session is a good amount to take.;

For example without being 100% exact...:
If your stop is 20 ticks
Your range 150 ticks
Your avg win ratio 33%
Your average trade 60ticks

Day Trading
Then if you take more than 4 trades signals per day you will probably lose over time....

Swing trading lets you get over this somewhat as you can keep in a trade in for several days -and realize say for example
2.5 times the daily range in a weekly period... ...

So then you would be attempting to line this up with the daily or weekly bar...

These indicators are available in Charts > Indicators > Market Place AddOns > MicroTrends
more details of the indicators can be found here: indicatorfactory.com/tradingview-indicators/