OIL - Will this move up, give way to a new downtrend?

Oil has been recovering quite fast. A little too fast for my liking. But I would be looking for an entry to sell if a new hard turn such as an engulfing daily candle or long-wick reversal would emerge and provide a stop point. But as you can see I've labelled the chart with two counts and one calls for a new top before a larger drop. However, the upward tend-line is broken and so it's about a 60/40 chance of a drop at this point. That's trading folks. It's not about a winning attitude but rather a "probability attitude". With good money management and good (not perfect because that's impossible) analysis you will have more winners than losers. The next trick is to develop a system for staying in trades long enough to have bigger winners than losers!