Forecasting Market Behavior: Insights from VIX Analysis

The past few days in the stock markets have been turbulent and characterized by a significant increase in volatility. The VIX reflects this volatility. This analysis is based on an ETF that tracks the VIX's price movement. The last H4 candle is particularly interesting: despite the increase in volatility, there was a distinctly negative CumDelta. This is typically a bearish signal, indicating a potential decrease in volatility (and thus potentially rising stock indices). To illustrate, I've marked two other points in the chart. It becomes apparent that each of these bearish CumDelta divergences was followed by a significant decline in volatility. Therefore, the target for the current signal is set at the 50% retracement of the last upward movement, coinciding with the high of the candle on April 11, 2024, which was followed by the upward gap. This is not a direct suggestion for a short trade on the VIX ETF, but rather serves as a forecast for the near future trajectory of the stock indices.