Visa with 5% room to run?
Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on August 13, 2021 with a closing price of 232.62.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 235.82 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 4.355% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 4.952% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 7.587% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% rise must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 14 trading bars; half occur within 27 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 34 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
BONUS ANALYSIS: All five algorithms have simultaneously signaled a BUY on the two hour chart on four prior occasions. All four instances saw the stock move up a minimum of 4.35%. The median move was 5.557% while the average was 5.89%. The top occurred 12-38 trading bars (24-76 trading hours) after the signal bar with the average around 29 bars, and median at 32.5. The stock did not begin moving upward on three of the four occasions. The stock moved down after the signal for an average of 3 trading bars (6 hours). The target top based on this additional analysis could see the stock move toward 244.37 near the close of trading on August 24, 2021.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 235.82 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 4.355% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 4.952% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 7.587% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% rise must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 14 trading bars; half occur within 27 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 34 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
BONUS ANALYSIS: All five algorithms have simultaneously signaled a BUY on the two hour chart on four prior occasions. All four instances saw the stock move up a minimum of 4.35%. The median move was 5.557% while the average was 5.89%. The top occurred 12-38 trading bars (24-76 trading hours) after the signal bar with the average around 29 bars, and median at 32.5. The stock did not begin moving upward on three of the four occasions. The stock moved down after the signal for an average of 3 trading bars (6 hours). The target top based on this additional analysis could see the stock move toward 244.37 near the close of trading on August 24, 2021.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
All forecasts are based on analysis of past behavior. Prior movements are not always indicative of future movement. Develop the theory, test the theory. Do your own research. Nothing in this analysis constitutes advice. YouTube For More. Good luck!!
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