Is the cash VIX giving us a reversal sign?
The cash VIX at the end of June 2021 found very strong support at 15 and could not close below. Since that timeframe we've seen higher highs. Since Nov 4, 2021 the cash VIX has made higher highs and lower highs and is therefore in an uptrend until we make a lower low. The VIX uptrend can also be seen when zooming out on the weekly and monthly chart.
Yesterday, the cash VIX had an "inside" day. I thought it would be interesting to study what happens to the VIX after an inside day. The orange circle's on this daily chart are "inside" days. As you can see they give an indication that a reversal is coming...sometimes the reversal happens immediately and other times it takes a couple days but in general, based upon my analysis, it's been a fairly reliable signal in the last 9 months.
If you follow the VIX then you also know that VIX gaps generally get filled fairly quickly...most of the time very quickly but some can take a couple of weeks to months. Very, very few take years.
I'm showing the following gaps have not been filled:
Upside Gaps:
45.40 (April 20, 2020)
35.01 (March 8, 2022)
33.39 (March 15, 2022)
Downside Gaps:
19.98 (Feb 9, 2022)
Yesterday, the cash VIX had an "inside" day. I thought it would be interesting to study what happens to the VIX after an inside day. The orange circle's on this daily chart are "inside" days. As you can see they give an indication that a reversal is coming...sometimes the reversal happens immediately and other times it takes a couple days but in general, based upon my analysis, it's been a fairly reliable signal in the last 9 months.
If you follow the VIX then you also know that VIX gaps generally get filled fairly quickly...most of the time very quickly but some can take a couple of weeks to months. Very, very few take years.
I'm showing the following gaps have not been filled:
Upside Gaps:
45.40 (April 20, 2020)
35.01 (March 8, 2022)
33.39 (March 15, 2022)
Downside Gaps:
19.98 (Feb 9, 2022)
Bình luận:
Just realized a typo: The sentence-Since Nov 4, 2021 the cash VIX has made higher highs and lower highs. This sentenced should read: Since Nov 4, 2021 the cash VIX has made higher highs and HIGHER LOWS. And the chart should read LH and not LL. I wish you could edit/correct in TV after publication!
Bình luận:
After today's action I think the signal given on March 23rd was a false inside day signal. The VIX needs to close below 16.34 and we'll have a lower low.
Bình luận:
14/17 times on this chart the signal was valid which is 82%. I've counted March 23rd as an invalid signal. This is a really good signal percentage and I'll keep tracking this stat.
Reversal can happen tomorrow or VIX could get to 20-20.90 before reversing.