REBOOT PART 3: GOLD, SILVER, MINERS ALL CRASH... A LITTLE BIT.
This is Part 3 to reboot of my gold crash series. If you want to review how we got here, check out the first 2. Please like/follow for support.
If you've been following, we have been crushing it since the reboot 1. Right now, it's not looking good for the metals complex. At close on Friday, it did not seem very bearish, after looking through block-by-block, I do not believe the last low will hold. If it does, I'll change thesis. Until then, gold is guilty until proven innocent. Automatically means 1650 for XAUUSD in the cards by 6/12. Miners are looking at least short term ugly.
For sake of time, I'll post this up first and update continuously as we go. I realize there's not a chart for GDX/GDXJ up there, I'll will post the next, soon.
*On a side note, the indicators have been revamped & for marketing purposes. They work about the same as before.
They are now:
Pham Infinite Regression Layering (PIRL)
Pham Applicable Congruent Bollingers (PACB)
Pham Infinite Volume Oscillator (PIVO)
If you've been following, we have been crushing it since the reboot 1. Right now, it's not looking good for the metals complex. At close on Friday, it did not seem very bearish, after looking through block-by-block, I do not believe the last low will hold. If it does, I'll change thesis. Until then, gold is guilty until proven innocent. Automatically means 1650 for XAUUSD in the cards by 6/12. Miners are looking at least short term ugly.
For sake of time, I'll post this up first and update continuously as we go. I realize there's not a chart for GDX/GDXJ up there, I'll will post the next, soon.
*On a side note, the indicators have been revamped & for marketing purposes. They work about the same as before.
They are now:
Pham Infinite Regression Layering (PIRL)
Pham Applicable Congruent Bollingers (PACB)
Pham Infinite Volume Oscillator (PIVO)
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SUNDAY 12:11 PM CT
INTERMEDIATE SITUATION FOR GC
INTERMEDIATE SITUATION FOR GC
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COMMENT SUNDAY 1:45 AM
PLEASE NOTE THAT SILVER HAS 1 MORE SPIKE IN IT. MAYBE HITTING 19.15.
PLEASE NOTE THAT SILVER HAS 1 MORE SPIKE IN IT. MAYBE HITTING 19.15.
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SUNDAY 2 PM
WHAT IS ES UP TO IN THE MEAN TIME?
LOOKS LIKE TOP AFTER FOMC.
I dont usually refer to ES but we are at an inflection point for markets in general, so its good to keep an eye out.
WHAT IS ES UP TO IN THE MEAN TIME?
LOOKS LIKE TOP AFTER FOMC.
I dont usually refer to ES but we are at an inflection point for markets in general, so its good to keep an eye out.
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SUNDAY 2:40 PM
BINARY OUTCOME FOR XAUUSD, IF THE RIOTS REALLY MOVE PRICES UP.
BINARY OUTCOME FOR XAUUSD, IF THE RIOTS REALLY MOVE PRICES UP.
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COMMENT PACB USE WITH PIRL W/ PIVO
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typo* above @ 3. LOOK AT POINT A, A HARDSTOP.....
don't know why I but "NOT"
don't know why I but "NOT"
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it should say: 3. LOOK AT POINT A, IT A HARD STOP, BUT NOT HARD TO SPOT. AT 81-DAY HIGHER BOUND, I DON'T THINK THAT'S AN ACCIDENT.
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at 5. HISTORICALLY... refers to purple 27-day lower bound and higher bound, 1700/1750
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UPDATE SUNDAY 3:23 PM CT
IF SCENARIO IN MOST RECENT CHART ABOVE PLAYS OUT AT 1725 ON JUNE 4TH , I WOULD BUY 6/19 GOLD CALLS AND PUTS AT 1725, AT THE MONEY. YOU ALMOST CANT'T LOSE.
IF SCENARIO IN MOST RECENT CHART ABOVE PLAYS OUT AT 1725 ON JUNE 4TH , I WOULD BUY 6/19 GOLD CALLS AND PUTS AT 1725, AT THE MONEY. YOU ALMOST CANT'T LOSE.
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UPDATE SUN 7:29 PM FREE SCRIPTS!!
IF YOU LIKE BOLLINGER BANDS, HERE ARE FREE SCRIPTS FOR PACB AND PANB SCRIPTS JUST I JUST POSTED WITH INSTRUCTIONS.
PACB: 3-BASED PRESET FOR EVENTUAL USE WITH PIRL AND PIVO
PANB: NATURAL TIME PRESETS FOR EVENTUAL USE WITH POIR AND POIV
They are the same but with 2 different uses in mind. That said, they are fully adjustable to whatever your tastes are.
IF YOU LIKE BOLLINGER BANDS, HERE ARE FREE SCRIPTS FOR PACB AND PANB SCRIPTS JUST I JUST POSTED WITH INSTRUCTIONS.
PACB: 3-BASED PRESET FOR EVENTUAL USE WITH PIRL AND PIVO
PANB: NATURAL TIME PRESETS FOR EVENTUAL USE WITH POIR AND POIV
They are the same but with 2 different uses in mind. That said, they are fully adjustable to whatever your tastes are.
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UPDATE SUNDAY 11:30 PM
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UPDATE 10:25 AM MON 100 MIN BARS
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UPDATE: HERE IS REBOOT 3.1 THE PATH DOWN THIS WEEK (XAUUSD VS GC)
It's trackable so we can have a trackable chart for each day or two without having to make it a brand new idea. All updates will continue here.
It's trackable so we can have a trackable chart for each day or two without having to make it a brand new idea. All updates will continue here.
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BULL CASE IS JUST NOT READY:
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THIS IS WHAT I'M TRYING TO DO: GET 8 DIFFERENT LOOKS AND EVALUATE WHAT'S MOST LIKELY.
SO THERE ARE 8 SIZE BARS: 60-, 75-, 90-, 105-, 120-, 135-, 150- AND 175-MIN BARS\
WHY NOT KEEP GOING? FOR EXAMPLE 180 MIN BARS?
BECAUSE I'M USING A 3X BASIS FOR REGRESSION LAYERING. SO 60X3=180. IT WOULD JUST BE THE SAME CHART, BUT BIGGER. IT DOESN'T GIVE A DIFFERENT POSSIBILITY, JUST A WIDER VIEW.
SO IN THEORY IF I CAN GET THE CODE TO APPROXIMATE FORWARDING THE LINES RIGHT. I CAN SEE THE 8 PROJECTIONS AND REALIZE WHAT IS MOST LIKELY. I REALLY BELIEVE IN THIS PROCESS.
SO THERE ARE 8 SIZE BARS: 60-, 75-, 90-, 105-, 120-, 135-, 150- AND 175-MIN BARS\
WHY NOT KEEP GOING? FOR EXAMPLE 180 MIN BARS?
BECAUSE I'M USING A 3X BASIS FOR REGRESSION LAYERING. SO 60X3=180. IT WOULD JUST BE THE SAME CHART, BUT BIGGER. IT DOESN'T GIVE A DIFFERENT POSSIBILITY, JUST A WIDER VIEW.
SO IN THEORY IF I CAN GET THE CODE TO APPROXIMATE FORWARDING THE LINES RIGHT. I CAN SEE THE 8 PROJECTIONS AND REALIZE WHAT IS MOST LIKELY. I REALLY BELIEVE IN THIS PROCESS.
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UPDATE 9:50 PM MONDAY
HAD A FEW PEOPLE ASK ME ABOUT THE STRENGTH IN GOLD AND SILVER SO I WANTED TO PUT THIS UP:
I WILL ADD EXPLANATIONS RIGHT BELOW THIS SOON.
HAD A FEW PEOPLE ASK ME ABOUT THE STRENGTH IN GOLD AND SILVER SO I WANTED TO PUT THIS UP:
I WILL ADD EXPLANATIONS RIGHT BELOW THIS SOON.
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HOLD ON, IT'S A BAD SHOT, LET ME GET ANOTHER SHOT.
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HERE'S A BETTER SHOT:
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OK HERE GOES:
1. This looks similar to what I've been posting, but it's not.
2. The time frames are based on calendar time instead of arbitrary 3x3x3 and so on.
3. This is 1 hour bars, @ 23 bars a day (not 24 bc of the afternoon closing).
4. So the layers are: blue/23-red/115-dark gray/483-purple/1449.
5. That is day-week-month-3months
6. The intention is to see if I can get a different look if the basis is different.
7. And it's confirming a bearish outlook.
8. Analysis goes like this:
A-price action is similar to C-price action, in that the red is running up at the dark gray from below seemingly about to cross. That means that the weekly price regression is trying to rise above the monthly price regression (this has to be true if it's bullish). If it can't get above it, it's coming down, one way or another. At A, 1-month regression (dark gray) is high above 3-month regression (purple, you can't see it because it doesn't fit). But at C,1-month is under 3-month price and fighting to curve back up. Not only that each of the skinny purple lines represent about 1 week, separation from 1 month to 3 month, and all of them have topped except for 1. So that's saying if price goes sideways the next 10 days, the 3 month regression will top. That's really bearish in this situation.
So if price - which is about to cross the red line regression - gets past it, it will pull the red regressions (weekly) down. So weekly, would be leading monthly regressions down. This forces the 3 month to come down faster because monthly is already below it and the gap is growing.
At B is what a rally looks like: Blue leading red, leading grays, OVER the purple line. That means daily price leading weekly leading monthly and 3-month prices. Any strong rally, THAT IS THE DEFINITION whether you use LRC or EMA or whatever. LRC just works best.
Now for money flow. Through volume and price figures, you figure out the amount of money that is responsible for the differential in each time frame, and then plot it all out for all those regressions at the top. For this, EMA works best. So at A, red money flow was falling even before the price topped. At, B it gets ready first, and then busts up. This is because it does not seemed forced because red was already closed to gray. But note that gray money flow was already falling at that time. So the crossover caused the rally. Once it topped though, there must be more buying power or money flow coming in to keep red above gray (weekly flow above monthly flow) other wise that would be distribution and hence falling price.
At C is where we are at. Gray (monthly) price and money flow has already topped twice. Weekly money flow has topped twice too. All this is saying that it must take a much stronger amount of buying for this to keep going. And look at the blue money flow, it zigs and zags all the time. So unless MUCH STRONGER BUYING TAKES PLACE, standard volatility (or just regular price action) will force this back down. And gold is running out of time, less than two weeks says purple: 8 trading days.
1. This looks similar to what I've been posting, but it's not.
2. The time frames are based on calendar time instead of arbitrary 3x3x3 and so on.
3. This is 1 hour bars, @ 23 bars a day (not 24 bc of the afternoon closing).
4. So the layers are: blue/23-red/115-dark gray/483-purple/1449.
5. That is day-week-month-3months
6. The intention is to see if I can get a different look if the basis is different.
7. And it's confirming a bearish outlook.
8. Analysis goes like this:
A-price action is similar to C-price action, in that the red is running up at the dark gray from below seemingly about to cross. That means that the weekly price regression is trying to rise above the monthly price regression (this has to be true if it's bullish). If it can't get above it, it's coming down, one way or another. At A, 1-month regression (dark gray) is high above 3-month regression (purple, you can't see it because it doesn't fit). But at C,1-month is under 3-month price and fighting to curve back up. Not only that each of the skinny purple lines represent about 1 week, separation from 1 month to 3 month, and all of them have topped except for 1. So that's saying if price goes sideways the next 10 days, the 3 month regression will top. That's really bearish in this situation.
So if price - which is about to cross the red line regression - gets past it, it will pull the red regressions (weekly) down. So weekly, would be leading monthly regressions down. This forces the 3 month to come down faster because monthly is already below it and the gap is growing.
At B is what a rally looks like: Blue leading red, leading grays, OVER the purple line. That means daily price leading weekly leading monthly and 3-month prices. Any strong rally, THAT IS THE DEFINITION whether you use LRC or EMA or whatever. LRC just works best.
Now for money flow. Through volume and price figures, you figure out the amount of money that is responsible for the differential in each time frame, and then plot it all out for all those regressions at the top. For this, EMA works best. So at A, red money flow was falling even before the price topped. At, B it gets ready first, and then busts up. This is because it does not seemed forced because red was already closed to gray. But note that gray money flow was already falling at that time. So the crossover caused the rally. Once it topped though, there must be more buying power or money flow coming in to keep red above gray (weekly flow above monthly flow) other wise that would be distribution and hence falling price.
At C is where we are at. Gray (monthly) price and money flow has already topped twice. Weekly money flow has topped twice too. All this is saying that it must take a much stronger amount of buying for this to keep going. And look at the blue money flow, it zigs and zags all the time. So unless MUCH STRONGER BUYING TAKES PLACE, standard volatility (or just regular price action) will force this back down. And gold is running out of time, less than two weeks says purple: 8 trading days.
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10:55 PM MONDAY CT
AND HERE'S THE STUFF I NORMALLY USE: 72 DAYS DIVIDED BY 3 ALL THE WAY DOWN
It's self explanatory.
AND HERE'S THE STUFF I NORMALLY USE: 72 DAYS DIVIDED BY 3 ALL THE WAY DOWN
It's self explanatory.
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11:15 PM: THE PREVIOUS 45 MN CHART IS NOT THE RIGHT TIME FRAME, I SWITCHED SCREENS AND DIDN'T REALIZE IT. SO IGNORE IT, I'LL POST THE RIGHT ONE.
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GOTTA GET GOING, WILL POST IN THE MORNING.
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COMMENT, JUST REALLY TIRED TODAY. LET'S WATCH WHERE IT FLOORS AND I'LL UPDATE FROM THERE. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH, FLOOR IS AROUND 1690+/-8.
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UPDATE 11:40
Check out temporary draft for REBOOT PART 4.
I AM NOT DONE WITH PART 3. ALL UPDATES WILL STILL CONTINUE HERE UNTIL IT NOTES OTHERWISE.
Check out temporary draft for REBOOT PART 4.
I AM NOT DONE WITH PART 3. ALL UPDATES WILL STILL CONTINUE HERE UNTIL IT NOTES OTHERWISE.
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UPDATE 12:50 PM TUESDAY: PHAM ORGANIC INFINITE VOLUME indicator in action.
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UPDATE TUESDAY 5:55 PM
BC OF THE URGENCY OF THIS TRADE: I'll be working on this in the mean time:
Part 3 is not finished yet, but we should know in a day or two.
BC OF THE URGENCY OF THIS TRADE: I'll be working on this in the mean time:
Part 3 is not finished yet, but we should know in a day or two.
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Chart above is Reboot 3.21. Click on it and you'll see all the details.
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UPDATE: THIS IDEA IS NOW CLOSED.
PLEASE FOLLOW AT REBOOT 3.21 CLICK ON MOST RECENT CHART ABOVE FOR LINK.
REASON: Really since REBOOT 1, it has been 1 theme, down first, then up it survives the test. But Ive seen enough evidence now to commit to Reboot 3.21's route.
PLEASE FOLLOW AT REBOOT 3.21 CLICK ON MOST RECENT CHART ABOVE FOR LINK.
REASON: Really since REBOOT 1, it has been 1 theme, down first, then up it survives the test. But Ive seen enough evidence now to commit to Reboot 3.21's route.
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8:48 AM
REVIEW:
NAILED GOLD THIS WEEK, NAILED IT LAST 2 WEEKS TOO.
NAILED TOP IN SILVER, DIDT REALLY TALK ABOUT IT AT ALL THOUGH, BC IT WAS STRONGER.
NAILED GDX.
MADE MONEY IN GDXJ, SHOULD HAVE BEEN CAREFUL.
NAILED ES TOO.
SO NOT TERRIBLE.
REVIEW:
NAILED GOLD THIS WEEK, NAILED IT LAST 2 WEEKS TOO.
NAILED TOP IN SILVER, DIDT REALLY TALK ABOUT IT AT ALL THOUGH, BC IT WAS STRONGER.
NAILED GDX.
MADE MONEY IN GDXJ, SHOULD HAVE BEEN CAREFUL.
NAILED ES TOO.
SO NOT TERRIBLE.
UPDATE CHARTS FOR GDX AND GDXJ