MRKKYI

Gold, continue to sell today

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MRKKYI Cập nhật   
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD   Vàng / Đô la Mỹ
In terms of gold, as expected, it continued to decline yesterday, testing the previous low near the 120-day moving average with consecutive bearish days. However, there was some consolidation during the day, likely due to the speculation regarding the daily downtrend. Two potential signals were discussed:

1. The potential formation of consecutive bearish days on the daily chart.
2. When zooming in to the H4 and H1 timeframes, there is a clear pattern of consecutive bearish and small bullish movements, indicating potential weakness.

However, during the European session yesterday, there was a pullback that broke above the morning high, leading to upward consolidation. In the US session, there was a significant drop without any retracement, which means there was no opportunity for a second bearish move.

Nevertheless, the fact that the daily chart continues to revisit the previous low, combined with the increasing rhythm of consecutive bearish days, indicates a high probability of further downside. The repeated testing of the support level suggests that there is not much support at that position, increasing the likelihood of a breakdown.

At the same time, after a significant decline on the previous day followed by a small retracement on the second day, regardless of whether the daily chart shows bullish consolidation or rebounding oscillations, it is important to approach the situation with a bearish bias, considering the presence of consecutive bearish days on the chart.

For short-term bearish positions after a previous day's decline and morning retracement, three points to consider are:
1. No significant retracement during the early morning pullback.
2. No resistance at the top of the large bearish candle on the hourly chart.
3. The 38.2% Fibonacci level around 1940, which also acts as a turning point between support and resistance.

Also, pay attention to the strength or weakness of the European session as it is crucial. If the European session shows weakness, there is a high probability of a significant breakdown. If it consolidates and breaks above the morning high at 1940, there may be further decline, but in a consolidating pattern.

Since the 1940 level was tested in the morning, a potential short position could be initiated directly around 1937-1938, with a target around 1926-1928, strong support at 1918, and a stop loss at 1945.

Short-term analysis still depends on the strength or weakness of the European session and the retracement of consecutive bearish days, whether it is a consolidating decline or a significant breakdown. Timing is crucial.

Currently, we continue to hold the sell order at 1939.5. For those with not short positions, direct trading around 1937-1938 is possible, with a target at the 1926-1928 level, strong support at 1918, and a stop loss at 1945.

The above views, for reference only, investment risk, enter the market need to be cautious; please strict stop loss, control the proportion of funds, rational trading.
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