XAU/USD 01 October 2024 Intraday Analysis
H4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
The price has continued its surge, reaching all-time highs with minimal pullbacks.
The bearish swing pullback phase has now been confirmed by a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS), which also establishes the swing range. Currently, we are trading between the swing high and the fractal low.
In yesterday's analysis, I noted that the internal range had narrowed significantly, allowing the price to confirm the swing pullback phase by printing the bearish iBOS. This is now reflected in the price action.
Intraday Expectation: We expect the initiation of a bullish pullback phase, indicated by a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH), denoted with a blue dotted line. However, since the bullish CHoCH is positioned in the premium zone, confirmation of the internal low will only occur if the price retraces to the 50% equilibrium (EQ).
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
Price met expectations by targeting a weak internal low and printing a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS).
As previously mentioned, price action has been erratic due to ongoing macroeconomic data and heightened geopolitical tensions.
Since the last analysis, price printed another bearish iBOS, followed by a bullish iBOS after reacting from an M15 demand zone.
Recent bearish Change of Character (CHoCH) suggests the potential initiation of a bearish pullback phase, though this is not confirmation but an indication. I will closely monitor this as the CHoCH positioning is near the internal high, requiring discretionary judgement.
Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to target the 50% equilibrium or the M15 supply zone before aiming for a weak internal high.
It's important to remain cautious, as the H4 timeframe has confirmed swing pullback phase with a bearish iBOS, which may limit upside momentum.
With rising geopolitical tensions, Gold is likely to remain highly volatile in the short term.
M15 Chart:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
The price has continued its surge, reaching all-time highs with minimal pullbacks.
The bearish swing pullback phase has now been confirmed by a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS), which also establishes the swing range. Currently, we are trading between the swing high and the fractal low.
In yesterday's analysis, I noted that the internal range had narrowed significantly, allowing the price to confirm the swing pullback phase by printing the bearish iBOS. This is now reflected in the price action.
Intraday Expectation: We expect the initiation of a bullish pullback phase, indicated by a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH), denoted with a blue dotted line. However, since the bullish CHoCH is positioned in the premium zone, confirmation of the internal low will only occur if the price retraces to the 50% equilibrium (EQ).
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
Price met expectations by targeting a weak internal low and printing a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS).
As previously mentioned, price action has been erratic due to ongoing macroeconomic data and heightened geopolitical tensions.
Since the last analysis, price printed another bearish iBOS, followed by a bullish iBOS after reacting from an M15 demand zone.
Recent bearish Change of Character (CHoCH) suggests the potential initiation of a bearish pullback phase, though this is not confirmation but an indication. I will closely monitor this as the CHoCH positioning is near the internal high, requiring discretionary judgement.
Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to target the 50% equilibrium or the M15 supply zone before aiming for a weak internal high.
It's important to remain cautious, as the H4 timeframe has confirmed swing pullback phase with a bearish iBOS, which may limit upside momentum.
With rising geopolitical tensions, Gold is likely to remain highly volatile in the short term.
M15 Chart:
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