XAU/USD 18-22 November 2024 Weekly Analysis

17 thg 11

Weekly Analysis:

Swing Structure -> Bullish.
Internal Structure -> Bullish.

Price Action Analysis:
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had positioned this CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks.

Now, for the first time since 23 November 2020, price has printed a bearish CHoCH. We are currently trading within a defined internal range.

Price is projected to move downward toward either the discount of the internal 50% Equilibrium (EQ), highlighted in blue, or the Weekly demand zone before targeting the weak internal high.

Note:
Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings.

Weekly Chart:

Daily Analysis:

-> Swing -> Bullish.
-> Internal -> Bullish.

Price Action Analysis:
In my weekly analysis dated 27 October 2024, I forecasted that price could potentially make new highs, thereby shifting the bearish Change of Character (CHoCH) closer to recent price action. This repositioning would serve as a trigger for a bearish pullback phase initiation.

As anticipated, this scenario unfolded with CHoCH shifting nearer to the current price and ultimately printing a bearish CHoCH. Currently, price is trading within an established internal range (highlighted in blue), trading in the discount zone of the internal 50% Equilibrium (EQ) and approaching a Daily demand zone, where a reaction is likely.

Given the current internal range dynamics, price is expected to react upon reaching the Daily demand zone and could trade upward to target the daily internal high. However, considering the signs of a pullback phase on the Weekly timeframe, there remains a possibility of price printing a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS).

Note:
With the Fed maintaining a dovish policy stance and the continued rise in geopolitical tensions, we should anticipate elevated market volatility, which may impact both intraday and longer-term price action.

Daily Chart:

H4 Analysis:

-> Swing -> Bearish.
-> Internal -> Bearish.

Price Action Analysis:
Analysis remains the same as previous bias from my analysis dated 12 November 2024.

Price has printed both a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS) and a subsequent bearish Break of Structure (BOS), confirming the need for a pullback across all higher timeframes (HTFs).

Currently, price action remains in alignment with the broader HTF pullback requirements.

Intraday Expectation:
The expectation for the intraday session is that price will print a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH) to indicate the initiation of a bullish pullback phase. The positioning of this bullish CHoCH is indicated by the blue dotted line on the chart.

However, it is also possible that price could extend to a new low, bringing the CHoCH positioning much closer to the current price action.

Note:
Given the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold prices is anticipated to persist. We should exercise caution and remain vigilant in this high-volatility environment.

H4 Chart: