Gold (XAUUSD) weekly update 04-08.12

2 thg 12, 2023

Gold has reached an all-time high. I expect it to break and then fall, forming the second swing.


Macroeconomics

Last week's PCE reading showed lower inflation and instead of gold rising, it fell.

The FED is about to pause, or at least that is the expectation at the moment.

Unemployment rate is rising, which is bullish for gold.

It seems that the banks are only buying gold because they are looking at the big picture - risk of recession, global risk (last two wars), instability in the USA caused by high debt and high interest rates.


Top-Down Analysis

I see no point in analysing this section, as we get automatic updates for 9 time frames every day.


Benchmark
https://www.tradingview.com/x/vOhp2ydg/

The commodity index is falling, but we see that gold is super bullish everywhere.


COT Reports

https://www.tradingview.com/x/rYb2QBGE/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/U2bIprNb/

It seems that everyone is buying gold at the moment - banks, professional traders and, of course, us.



Gold vs Silver

https://www.tradingview.com/x/nrcBodaZ/

Silver is bullish like gold, confirming the direction for now.


Volume Spread Analysis - Wyckoff patterns

https://www.tradingview.com/x/nTnIXoRw/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/K5vzyvZA/

The current rally is being confirmed by volume.
For now, the accumulation pattern is being respected.


Momentum

https://www.tradingview.com/x/qweOjQ0k/

The price should fall soon. Momentum indicators show that the current price is overbought.