*** This is not a call for a new short trade. It's an update for a previous idea ***
We have 2 important news I'm always watching :
FOMC and NFP.
We have both this week...
As I've mentioned in the previous idea time wise it was too early for an ICL in gold
on the 1st of October. After 2 extremely long intermediate cycles there was a chance for an ICL at 108 candles but the decline was not enough steep to me.
Many cycle traders were calling for an ICL at that point : me not.
The decline stopped at 1460 what was no man's land. It was enough to print a pivot point for the triangle and I warned everyone that the silver trendline break was a " side-move-trendline-break" so gold's break out of the triangle will be false too.
On the 25th of October we got our false trendline break in gold too.
The early bulls are still holding the positions and waiting for the rally , but I think
we still have 7-10 days left in this cycle before it bottoms.
And these 7-10 days can get nasty even with a panic selling.
We are at the lower trendline of the triangle, and many traders are waiting for
the bounce again, but actually there is no much space left in this triangle as we are right at the apex...
It's worth watching the chances of the rate cut here:
www.cmegroup.com/tra...untdown-to-fomc.html
It's 96% and it was above 90% in the last few days.
Stocks rallied on the high chance rut cut:
I traded this also in this idea:
But gold didn't rally. So what can we expect ?
We get a rate cut , and gold starts to rally because it was waiting for the 100%?
I doubt.
I think the seller who came in the last few days will come in again and hit the price again right at the announcement:
On the small trime frame I have the following levels to watch :
1475-80 and 1460. These to levels are what I will be watching at the FOMC.
There is a decent chance that we tag 1460 by the close.
On the daily chart the minimum where I expect the ICL can be printed is the 100 SMA at 1460 -70$.
If the drop is becoming serious we are going to tag the 38,2% FIBO retracement at
1446$. That would be the back test of the multi day consolidation what we had in JULY this year:
As you can see on this daily chart the triangle's lower trendline is broken.
We tagged the overbought territory on the RSI and left it so the ICL is definetely not printed yet. Now we need to see the overbought zigzag for a few days.
MACD is crossing over and I feel it's going to get more overbought in the following days.
My prediction for the ICL is middle of November.
( The chart shows 18th Nov)
It seems my original expectation for the tag of 1370 will not be filled.
We have 2 important news I'm always watching :
FOMC and NFP.
We have both this week...
As I've mentioned in the previous idea time wise it was too early for an ICL in gold
on the 1st of October. After 2 extremely long intermediate cycles there was a chance for an ICL at 108 candles but the decline was not enough steep to me.
Many cycle traders were calling for an ICL at that point : me not.
The decline stopped at 1460 what was no man's land. It was enough to print a pivot point for the triangle and I warned everyone that the silver trendline break was a " side-move-trendline-break" so gold's break out of the triangle will be false too.
On the 25th of October we got our false trendline break in gold too.
we still have 7-10 days left in this cycle before it bottoms.
And these 7-10 days can get nasty even with a panic selling.
We are at the lower trendline of the triangle, and many traders are waiting for
the bounce again, but actually there is no much space left in this triangle as we are right at the apex...
It's worth watching the chances of the rate cut here:
www.cmegroup.com/tra...untdown-to-fomc.html
It's 96% and it was above 90% in the last few days.
Stocks rallied on the high chance rut cut:
But gold didn't rally. So what can we expect ?
We get a rate cut , and gold starts to rally because it was waiting for the 100%?
I doubt.
I think the seller who came in the last few days will come in again and hit the price again right at the announcement:
On the small trime frame I have the following levels to watch :
1475-80 and 1460. These to levels are what I will be watching at the FOMC.
There is a decent chance that we tag 1460 by the close.
On the daily chart the minimum where I expect the ICL can be printed is the 100 SMA at 1460 -70$.
If the drop is becoming serious we are going to tag the 38,2% FIBO retracement at
1446$. That would be the back test of the multi day consolidation what we had in JULY this year:
As you can see on this daily chart the triangle's lower trendline is broken.
We tagged the overbought territory on the RSI and left it so the ICL is definetely not printed yet. Now we need to see the overbought zigzag for a few days.
MACD is crossing over and I feel it's going to get more overbought in the following days.
My prediction for the ICL is middle of November.
( The chart shows 18th Nov)
It seems my original expectation for the tag of 1370 will not be filled.
Bình luận:
The trendline was backtested.
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We are below the triangle.
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Both ADP and GDP numbers were strong.
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Here is the seller again.
You can always count on him:
You can always count on him:
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Pattern of chaos: megaphone pattern. Sign of manipulation.
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I think 2 very big player or 2 large group is fighting for the control of gold. One of them is trying to push price lower to make a better entry the other one is not letting gold to complete a healthy ICL and trying to pull up the price.
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We are back in the triangle and close to the upper trendline again.
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In the year of 2329 Earth is the member of the United Federation of Planets. Except the UK which is still trying to leave the EU and US-CHINA which is still trying to sign the Trump Trade Deal.
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There is a possibility thst we are still in this range. If that is the case the range had 2 false breakouts during the last month.
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2 hrs from now we will have the NFP numbers.
The forecast is 89.000 though the previous was 139.000.
The reason for this is the GM strike.
The ADP report this week showed the private sector added 125.000 jobs vs. the 120.000 forecast so we should expect the NFP numbers well above 100.000. But noone knows how much this affected by General Motors... i think the number will be a surprise above 100.000 and dollar will bounce again with gold dropping.
The forecast is 89.000 though the previous was 139.000.
The reason for this is the GM strike.
The ADP report this week showed the private sector added 125.000 jobs vs. the 120.000 forecast so we should expect the NFP numbers well above 100.000. But noone knows how much this affected by General Motors... i think the number will be a surprise above 100.000 and dollar will bounce again with gold dropping.
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Well above 100.000.
128.000.
128.000.
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The ping pong continues.
Down to the bottom of the range.
Definetely range game in play.
Down to the bottom of the range.
Definetely range game in play.
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Right now we are fighting with the 50 SMA.
If we break below it, that is very bearish.
(50 SMA is blue )
If we break below it, that is very bearish.
(50 SMA is blue )
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In the range...
It was way too early to buy last week.
It was way too early to buy last week.
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And here is silver:
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The trendline break signal what I use has many many rules.
And this was a sideways move trendline break what I never trade.
Now it looks like a flag what will break down.
And this was a sideways move trendline break what I never trade.
Now it looks like a flag what will break down.
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Taking profit on the half of the position.
I want to see if we can break down the range or not.
I want to see if we can break down the range or not.
Giao dịch được đóng thủ công:
50% closed at 1486.
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I think we are done for today.
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Actually I’m happy we are getting some kind of drop because the lower we go the more powerful next intermediate cycle we get
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With this shallow ICL the next rally would be just a weak cycle.
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Still holding the half of the position. We see what tomorrow brings.
Giao dịch được đóng thủ công:
We can't break down the range. From this point I give up the shorts after a few successfull short idea.
Looking for a long entry.
Looking for a long entry.
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Panic selling triggered today.
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After breaking the 100 MA a few days ago ; yesterday we almost tagged the the FIB 38,2% retracement.
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This level is the first point where I think the ICL can be printed.
But....
If we drop into the July consolidation box we might tag the 50% retracement at 1413 and even the 200 MA at 1390.
But....
If we drop into the July consolidation box we might tag the 50% retracement at 1413 and even the 200 MA at 1390.
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At the ICLs the 50 and the 100 MA usually crossing over and I would like to see the oversold zigzag too.
So even 1379 is not off of the table yet ( FIBO 61,8%)
So even 1379 is not off of the table yet ( FIBO 61,8%)
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As you can see this short is not easy...
I gave it up because it's always harder to catch the bottom if you are short than if you are at the sidelines..
I gave it up because it's always harder to catch the bottom if you are short than if you are at the sidelines..
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Today we tested back the breakdown and the RSI is bouncing from the oversold. It shouldn't be over yet , so tomorrow I expect to drop deeper and the RSI can start to print the oversold zigzag.
PLus would be nice to see the 50 and the 100 SMA to cross over.
PLus would be nice to see the 50 and the 100 SMA to cross over.
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I feel that the bottom will be printed sometimes next week at around 1410-1420 at the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Yesterday was an important day. All the well known newsletter writers sent out an email to buy gold.
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But gold is just not ready yet:
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It’s turning down from the 100 SMA. why to pay for someone for the wrong info when you can get the right information here on TRADINGVIEW for free?!
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If Nov 12. was the ICL we waisted 6 days on a 20$ rally.
It looks pathetic to me as a start of a new intermediate cycle.
It looks pathetic to me as a start of a new intermediate cycle.
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It looks like a flag what wants to break down.
I'm still on the sidelines in gold.
Waiting for a real long opportunity.
I'm still on the sidelines in gold.
Waiting for a real long opportunity.
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This is starting to look ugly.
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Bulls will try to make excuses why it should go up but I'm very sure now that tomorrow we are going to see a big 20-30$ down day.
Get ready: I might start a short trade if we don't have a bounce by the close.
Get ready: I might start a short trade if we don't have a bounce by the close.
