My longer term view of XAU is to retest 1375 highs to complete the H&S move on the daily, with a mild pullback (with DXY recovering a bit) and then continuing to test 78.6% (1557) on the Fib (monthly) by end of the year. With the rates rising, and potential for the Fed to raise QT outlook, it should be positive for the Dollar thereby creating a complex interplay action in the commodities. However, I will be watching the 1375 break with volume in case the broader market continues to have higher volatility and a stronger pullback to the 200DMA (or below) since it indicates a longer term systemic risk.
To condense the outlook, if we break above 1375, expect a test of 1557 area. If we break below supported by a recovering DXY move, we can see 1280 support again. For now, I'm in the sidelines and will be watching the movement especially as we approach the upcoming FOMC meeting in March under Powell.
PS: Here's the Fib on the monthly.
To condense the outlook, if we break above 1375, expect a test of 1557 area. If we break below supported by a recovering DXY move, we can see 1280 support again. For now, I'm in the sidelines and will be watching the movement especially as we approach the upcoming FOMC meeting in March under Powell.
PS: Here's the Fib on the monthly.