We noticed the accumulation phase going on there and decided to mentioned buying on the breakout of the last post. Despite there being signals on the 1 hour chart, it broke from the resistances.
But, our target is now raised, and we will continue to look at taking profits at each swing high until our mark at $10.5k!
Reminder: This is just an original idea, the updates will come along for any turns in the market. We should never only rely on one single prediction and not take into account what is showing in the market AFTER the prediction.
We had a low volume, sideways price action that squeezed the Bollinger Bands in the last post. So a breakout was imminent, we just had to find out which direction that was going to be. If you aren't in now, don't rush. We are still pretty positive on the 1 hour MACD Histogram, and we should retest this resistance line that we broke out of. This is still wave 1. But I am looking at taking profit at the $9150-9168 area like mentioned before.. At least whenever we get a true retest of the current 10 minute peak on RSI. We may reach over this first target, but the important thing to remember is to be patience. BTC typically retraces a lot on wave 2's... Making them almost seem as if they are still a part of the bearish trend. I will work on an alternate count so that we can stay as neutral and prepared for market reversals. But now, that break was enough for me to turn a bit bullish.
we need to retest the 1 hr 55 EMA.. So i have a buy order sitting right above $9k. The 5th wave could be pretty bullish here since we've crossed over the on the 2 hr chart.
Updated wave count
This will tell me everything here. We only fall from ascending triangles in corrections, and we always break up in impulse waves. If we fall here, then we are still in correction mode. If we rise, then I can confirm this to be impulsive waves to our next target (though, i failed breakout can occur).
Wave 1 is done. There is about a 40% chance we go up again before we retrace (blue arrows), otherwise we should get buy orders ready for the next lift.
There important thing to understand here. A lot of people are expecting a lower low for this correction. BUT, what we need to consider is if that were the case, then we'd need to consider this as the wave B. But B waves cannot have more than 3 subwaves. So, because we have 5 full waves so far, we CANNOT assume the downtrend will continue. If we do get a lower low, then this breakout would just be failed. But, I have to say we are uptrending right now. the 12 hr Stoch has Reset and that's an important indicator for another big run.
I'm expecting a bigger pullback here because this is wave one and we are bearishly diverging on timeframes under 4 hours. But The RR setup is what I have for NOW. It may change over time. If you want a safer play, then buy after wave 2 is confirmed AND we break this most recent swing high.
Here is the 4 hour chart. This is what I'm looking for. I think we stretch down to the .786 fib level to retest the previous resistance (as mentioned).
But I am also taking note of the 4 hour 55 EMA. Not once have we closed below it this entire bull run. If we do close below, then I will take that as a warning sign to not go long. Though, I do think that we'll retest and with the wick, to hopefully bounce right off.
I'm absolutely making this judgement too early. But the setup up on the Stoch and wave count have me thinking a descending wedge is forming here. It's looking like a pretty good setup. And I'm confident enough in the overall analysis to place a buy order at $8032. I may or may not remove it if anything changes. But for now, I'm placing it down.
Boom. I'd expect some time of retrace soon. A little weird here, but hey, I'll take it.
Short term top I believe. We've tried many times to break this topline resistance but continue to fail with just the wick. This is the 30 minute chart.
Alternate count. If we break 9440 then $9600 would be the next target. As you can see, BTC typically likes to hit extended 3rd waves. It's just best to just hold onto BTC until larger scale targets are reached. It's very hard to continue to try and hit each and every top without hitting a mistake here and there.
I actually do believe that hold this bottom support of the right descending triangle. They do not always break down. BUT, if this does, then we may come into contact with this yellow support line again.
Got caught into a bull trap there. But we do have 3 alternate routes.
The Blue route: This would be a larger ABC correction
The Yellow route: This would be an ascending wedge
The White route: This would be a part of an extended 3rd wave.
All 3 options are very reasonable. But the yellow and the white route seem to be the most likely.
Bear flag. Doesn't look quite good for the short-term. We must be cautious and take everything as it is. My stop loss has already triggered. I'm trading with this short trend, it seems like it will continue to go lower, so I'm shorting until the downtrend is reversed.
Reaching a critical apex. This triangle can break either up or down. BUT, I'm getting a lot of bearish intent from these climb up. I would not be surprised if we fall here. If we break the yellow support (which may happen if we fall from the triangle), then we may test this green support zone again.
This is where BTC starts acting funky... It's acting extremely sketchy right now. I just wanted to make sure I get you all this update out so nothing catches you off guard.
We can break up here, but it honestly doesn't seem likely. If we do break up, we have a few resistances to deal with as well. So I don't like the RR setups in long positions at the moment. But of course that may change over time.
But those last days i had not the same targets than you.
First i thought, 9450 was not the resistance we had to break, but 9530 was.
There is a resistance, in red, between 11.7k and 9.7k.
At this perfect point, it has create a perfect bearish gartley.
So i oppened a Short. I expected 9100, but it seem the 0.5 fibonacci of the fall from 9.7k to 8.65k hold the price at 9.18k.
I stay bullish, but we need to break the red resistance.
We have to notice that at 10.4k we create a bearish crab pattern. And at 10.55k there is the 0.78 fibonacci of the fall from 11.7k to 6.45k.
I will be happy if you give me your point of view. And good luck with your trades.
I am able to see EW, but i am very bad with ABC correction. I need to study more.
Good luck !