The question is... WHEN IN THE HELL DO WE GET IT?
So check this out. In my big analysis, we all know that our main target is $11k or higher, we're looking at a failure and a possible retrace to $3k. That's just the bias. BUT, we aren't going to automatically ASSUME that. Because anything can happen. But why does that information matter? Because typically in healthy impulse waves, we get larger retraces on subwaves, and we move up a little less parabolically. Parabolic increases call for parabolic decreases. It's just not healthy.
And this run is NOT healthy either. We are extremely overbought, but it's not stopping BTC from tearing the walls apart. I will update with an analysis on indicators, and minuette wave count. BUT, what I can infer is that this is not the last run for BTC . And We would start looking for the end of this run to be between $10-10.1k. Yeah? Crazy right... As soon as you think you have the wave count down, and everything is simple with the divergences, the indicators reset and we go for another $300 tear. I would expect that again here, because we actually just got a on the 3 hour. Indicating that after we correct from this $9750-$9800 range, we'll get another leg up. The lower timeframe indicators are what keeps driving the DAILY indicators to continue to move higher.
Like on my last post, I stated that we never quite retested the 55 Daily yet, and we are in the same position as the previous crazy drop from $11.7k to $6.4k. I do NOT believe we drop back down to $6.4k just yet. I think 11k is still a suitable target before anything like that happens.
Trade with the trend, and try to stay as neutral as possible.
Opposing trend trades should be on short-time frames.
Consider alternate paths and don't force your trades.
Patience is key, and keep the emotions in check.
Losing money is okay.
Stick to stop losses.
A RR above 2.0 and a high probability trade will make you profitable OVER TIME.
Literally, this one sign of bullish divergence on the 3 hour RSI means that after this correction, we are likely to make another run for higher highs.
Possible truncated 5th here.
alternate count. The original is already invalidated.
A wave is complete here is a long positions play. Targeting the 55 EMA and the .5 fib retrace.
Bearish And Bullish Counts. Based on the Daily histogram, I would actually think the bearish would be just as, if not more likely than the bull count. But we should stay as neutral as possible.
If you're swing trading BTC, Here is an outlook. We obviously bearish right now, and I expect this trend to continue to the low $8k region.
So with BTC here, there are 2 things to consider. And both of them deal with the top resistance line. The dotted white line is a resistance that has not yet been established, but it would be a channel resistance. If we fail to break that channel resistance, then we would classify this as a bear flag, and I would enter another short.
If we break the dotted line, then we would continue to the target of $9250. BUT, we would not assume a fall to the lower levels after that. We would have to wait on a confirmation of a break below the previous A wave. Even though the original analysis is bearish, I'm trying to stay as neutral as possible because this market is PSYCHO!
Beautiful isn't it? Bearish 3 line strike with immediate rejection at the 55 EMA. Setting our NEXT target to at least $8200
Two bearish formations, but bullish divergences on the 1 hour. Higher time frames are oversold on stoch, but the 1 hour may show another small drop. I'm not seeing a high RR setup here. So just being a little cautious here and waiting to see what happens.
Here is a bullish count.
Short order @ $8750. Target .786 extension @ $8450-$8500
Here are the bearish signals. But I still am NOT in a position, I want to see more rejection.
I've already taken profit on the trade a while back for just a little scalp. I didn't feel like sitting around all day for a sideways market when I can just hop back in later after confirmation. Anyways, this reminds me of an accumulation period where people are cycling out short and long orders. I would NOT be surprised if we start our next bull run from here. So here is another alternate count. If we dont break that bottom support line then we might as well go up!