CoT Trend Change Momentum

22 thg 7

I discovered that whenever there's huge change in long IO or short IO there will be a momentum shift. So, I created this indicator to spot massive explosive volume changes for commercials and non commercials activity. Using standard deviation 2 and -2 as extreme point. Whatever crossing above standard deviation 2 indicating positions are added regardless whether it is long or shorts, whatever crossing below standard deviation -2 means positions are closed.
This is how I use this indicator:
1) In this example , i use only the commercials long and shorts. Whenever the longs exceed stdeviation +2, means that long volume flow in massively, for me this can be indicating potential to the upside. Whenever longs fall below stdeviation-2, for me this can be indicating that commercials are either taking profits for the short positions or accumulating for another bull price.
2) For shorts same logic applied here, when it exceeds stdeviation +2, mean commercials shorts position increase massively, when it exceeds stdeviation-2, means that commercials closed their short positions.
For this script, I use 13 weeks period as lookback, u guys may directly modify the period in the script to set the period that u want.
I've added for non-commercials as well, to ease people who emphasizes on non-commercials positioning analysis process.
I'm still trying to incorporate this with Open Interest Analysis. Hopefully u guys find this indicator useful. Feel free to modify it, to understand it more, my suggestions are u compare date by date the positions, to see the extreme points. The indicator only works in weekly chart, it is non repainted only in weekly chart, meaning that the indicator shows the histogram just as the week open.