Oster's Fair Index (OFI)Note : Excitingly, this indicator is optimized to work exclusively with weekly candles (1W) ! Because fundamental analyses, with their longer-term outlook, thrive on the broader perspective provided by weekly data.
Overview:
Oster's Fair Index (OFI) stands out as a sophisticated indicator to offer traders a comprehensive assessment of a stock's fundamental valuation. Unlike many conventional indicators that focus solely on technical analysis, OFI places a strong emphasis on fundamental metrics, providing traders with a deeper understanding of a stock's intrinsic worth. It applies Oster's method (explained below) to determine the fundamental fair price of a stock.
Innovative Approach to Fundamental Analysis:
OFI employs a unique approach to fundamental analysis, integrating multiple key metrics including Yield , P/S (Price-to-Sales) ratio , P/E (Price-to-Earnings) ratio , Debt/Asset ratio , and P/FCF (Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow) ratio . These metrics collectively offer a holistic view of a company's financial health, allowing traders to gauge its potential for growth and profitability. Notably, the fundamental metrics included in OFI are regarded as the most crucial indicators for fundamental stock evaluation according to Oster's method. Dividend yield and P/S ratio are prioritized as the most significant, followed by the P/E ratio, with supplementary consideration given to the debt-to-asset ratio and price-to-free cash flow ratio. This weighting reflects their importance in determining a stock's fair value according to the methodology, which is integrated into OFI's calculation process.
Customizable Parameters for Tailored Analysis:
One of OFI's standout features is its flexibility, allowing users to customize the fundamental parameters based on their specific investment strategy or preferences. Traders can selectively include or exclude metrics , adjust weighting factors , and set alarm thresholds to align with their unique trading objectives. This customization empowers traders to tailor OFI according to their individual preferences and market perspectives. Although a default value has been set for the weighting of the parameters, traders still have the option to customize it based on their own trading strategy and preference, ensuring that OFI remains adaptable to diverse trading styles and objectives.
Sophisticated Calculation Methodology:
Behind the scenes, OFI employs a sophisticated calculation methodology to derive its insights. It retrieves fundamental data for the selected stock, such as total revenue, earnings per share, debt-to-asset ratio, free cash flow per share, and dividend yield. However, these metrics are not viewed in isolation; rather, they are considered in relation to historical trends . For instance, while a low debt-to-asset ratio may indicate fundamental strength for a company, it must be interpreted in the context of its historical performance. If the debt-to-asset ratio has historically been consistently lower, it may suggest weaker performance despite the seemingly favorable current ratio. Furthermore, OFI goes beyond mere fundamental metrics by incorporating the stock price itself into its analysis . A low debt-to-asset ratio becomes even more attractive for the company if the stock price is also historically low, indicating undervaluation. OFI takes all these aspects into account, providing traders with a comprehensive and nuanced evaluation of a stock's fundamental attractiveness, considering all these aspects in relation to each of the fundamental metrics mentioned above.
Normalized Fairness Differentials for Standardized Comparison:
OFI employs a method where the aforementioned fundamental metrics interact as described earlier. These metrics are combined into a fundamental, normalized value using weighting factors. This value is then normalized by the moving price range of the last 12 months. The result provides insights not only into when the stock price was undervalued, overvalued, or fair, but also enables traders to estimate potential price movements based on the fundamental health of the company. Additionally, a dashed fair price line simply represents the sum of the current stock price and the OFI value. This line illustrates the fair price level of the stock derived from the methodology.
Interpretation:
A negative OFI indicates that the stock may be undervalued based on fundamental metrics. Conversely, a positive OFI suggests that the stock may be overvalued according to fundamental analysis. A zero OFI implies that the stock is trading at a fair price relative to its fundamentals, indicating a balanced valuation scenario. The values of OFI are not arbitrary; they represent the degree of overvaluation or undervaluation in the currency set in the chart settings. This means traders can discern, for example, how many USD the stock is undervalued or overvalued by . Additionally, a dashed fair price line simply represents the sum of the current stock price and the OFI value, illustrating the fair price levels of the stock derived from the methodology.
Dynamic Color Coding for Visual Clarity:
To enhance usability, OFI features dynamic color coding that visually highlights the fair price differentials. Green signifies potential undervaluation , red indicates potential overvaluation , and neutral colors represent fair valuation . This intuitive visual feedback enables traders to quickly identify opportunities and risks.
Alerts:
OFI generates alerts based on these interpretations to assist traders in making informed decisions. An Undervalued Signal (BUY) is triggered when the OFI is below zero and meets the buy threshold criteria. This indicates that the stock is fundamentally undervalued, prompting a BUY alert. Conversely, an Overvalued Signal (SELL) is generated when the OFI surpasses zero and meets the sell threshold criteria. This signals that the stock is fundamentally overvalued, prompting a SELL alert. When OFI hovers around zero, suggesting that the stock is trading at a fair price, a Fair Price Reached (FAIR) alert is generated. This encourages traders to consider profit-taking strategies given the balanced valuation.
Justification of Originality and Value:
In a landscape saturated with technical indicators, OFI distinguishes itself by offering traders a refreshingly simple yet powerful approach to fundamental analysis. While traditional methods often involve laborious scrutiny of financial metrics or even poring over entire company balance sheets, OFI streamlines this process, providing traders with a swift overview of a stock's fundamental health. Its strength lies in seamlessly integrating fundamental analysis with stock price movements, offering insights into how price correlates with fundamental metrics.
One could say we marry the simplicity of technical analysis with the depth of fundamental analysis. This unique combination empowers traders to make informed decisions with ease, leveraging the best of both worlds to navigate the markets effectively.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, Oster's Fair Index (OFI) represents a pioneering advancement in the realm of fundamental analysis, offering both sophisticated calculation methodologies and intuitive, user-friendly features. By marrying these elements with customizable parameters and intuitive visuals, OFI equips traders with a powerful tool for evaluating the fundamental valuation of stocks. Whether you're a seasoned investor or a novice trader, OFI offers invaluable insights that can inform and enrich your trading journey.
Debt
IOFin F-Score by zdmre🗣The IOFin F-Score is a discrete score between zero and ten that reflects ten criteria used to determine the strength of a firm's financial position.
🗣It is used to determine the best value stocks, with ten being the best and zero being the worst.
The IOFin F-Score broken down into the following categories:
Profitability
Equity, cash flow, liquidity, and source of funds
Operating efficiency
Criteria Include:
Price to book (P/B) lower than 3 (1 point)
Debt to Equity (D/E) lower than 0.5 (1 point)
Price to FreeCashFlow (P/FCF) equal to or lower than 20 (1 point)
Peg Ratio lower than 1 (1 point)
Sustainable Growth Rate higher than 0.3 (1 point)
Return on Assets (ROIC) higher than 0.07 (1 point)
Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 0.3 (1 point)
EnterpriseValue/Ebitda lower than 10 (1 point)
Quick Ratio equal to or higher than 1 (1 point)
Operating Margin higher than 0.15 (1 point)
Financial IndicesThis indicator provides simple table at the top of the screen that shows the most important financial indices
1. Dividend Yield (DY), Fiscal quarter.
2. Earning per Share Growth (EG), Fiscal quarter.
3. Price-to=Book (PB) Ratio, Fiscal quarter.
4. Price-to-Earning (PE) Ratio, Twelve trailing Months.
Debt-to-Equity (D/E) Ratio, Fiscal quarter.
You can configure your preferences regarding the minimum and maximum acceptable values. Also, you can configure the table color of positive values or negative values
Financial MetricsGives a sneak peak into some of the important financial ratios described below:
1. P/E : price to earnings ratio (Green when P/E<15)
2. PEG: Price to earnings growth ratio (Green when PEG<1)
3. P/S: Price to sales ratio (Green when P/S<2)
4. EV/FCF: Enterprise Value to Free Cashflow ratio
5. OPM: Operating Profit Margin % (Green when OPM>15%)
6. D/E: Debt to equity ratio (Green when D/E<1)
7. ROE: Return on equity % (Green when ROE>15%)
8. Div_Yield: Dividend yield
Disclaimer: All the limits defined are based on the widely accepted general values, but are subjective to particular sector or group of stocks. For example IT stocks command higher valuation than cyclical stocks like metal. So Compare with other stocks of the same sector to reach any conclusion.
Modified Mannarino Market Risk IndicatorThis indicator is meant to give an overall indication of risk and a very basic implementation of the modified mannarino market risk indicator. I take no credit for the original formula, and just decided to hack this together so that it could be useful to the community
Silen's Financials Fair ValueIt is finally here! 🔥 My 3rd and most important script in my Financial series! 🚀
Ever imagined to see all fundamentals (or many that is) combined into one indicator that is right on your chart, showing you how your favorite stock is trading compared to its fundamentals?
Well, here is your answer! 📡
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This script shows you my own personal interpretation of fair value, based solely on the financial fundamentals of a company compared to market averages.
I don't believe that certain sectors of the market should be priced higher than others. If you look at historical data you'll see that favored sectors always rotate - placing insanely high P/E multiples on some sectors. Once they are "out" and people rotate away from those sectors you're left with nothing but the naked fundamentals that matter. So, you'll see many companies, that have been doing well on paper, see their share price decline by 70-90% for no other reasons than people favoring other sectors.
That's why it's even more important to focus on fair value that is solely fundamentals-based. Know when your stock gets to expensive. 🤯
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To give you some examples:
- Most Megacaps trade at historically high valuations, several times my fair value. Those include AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, TSLA, JPM, TSM, V and so on. And no, in the past they partially traded below (my) fair value.
- Most Cybersecurity / Cloud companies are trading at truly massive multiples of my fair value. (NET, DDOG, etc)
- Many Smallcaps & Midcaps are trading several multiples (OESX, CODX, QFIN) below my fair value. And no, in the past they partially traded above (my) fair value.
Ok, so much about the market. You ultimately decide how much you want to orientate on fair value. 👨🏫
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This fair value indicator (purple line):
Takes the P/E rate of the company and compares it to the market (50% weight)
Takes the P/S rate of the company and compares it to the market (50% weight)
Then adds boni and mali f or debt/equity rates and debt and equity itself
Also looks at past growth and calculates future P/E and P/S rates which adds , in some cases, value to the fair value (green line)
Also compares how historical valuations have behaved compared to fair value and simulates a fair value guideline (dark blue line)
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This script is part 3️⃣ of a series of indicators that work well together.
Script 1️⃣ of the series is:
P/E & P/S Rates
Script 2️⃣ of the series is:
Debt & Equity
If you use all 3 scripts together it will look like this, giving you truly deep and simple information about the fundamentals of a company:
Example 1 - AMD
Example 2 - HZO
Example 3 - APPS
I hope this script makes your investing and stock picks a lot easier! 🔆💹🕗
Disclaimer: Fair value is always subjective. There are many different approaches to fair value. This one is only my personal interpretation.
Disclaimer 2: This script works only for the Day-Timeframe.
Disclaimer 3: This script uses 17,5 P/E and 3,0 P/S as market averages. The actual average keeps changing but, historically speaking, these seemed to be good numbers.
Feel free to share your thoughts and feedback! 🙃
[TG] Complete Financial DataHISTORY & CREDITS
Complete Financial Data is basic, yet very effective tool, that will show the most important information from the company's latest financial statements at a glance.
WHAT IT DOES
The table is designed to show comprehensive financial data about the selected ticker.
Revenue - often referred to as sales or the top line, is the money received from normal business operations.
Gross profit , also called gross income, is calculated by subtracting the cost of goods sold from revenue.
Net income , also called net earnings, is calculated as sales minus cost of goods sold, selling, general and administrative expenses, operating expenses, depreciation, interest, taxes, and other expenses.
Earnings per share (EPS) is calculated as a company's profit divided by the outstanding shares of its common stock. The resulting number serves as an indicator of a company's profitability.
Total debt includes long-term liabilities, such as mortgages and other loans that do not mature for several years, as well as short-term obligations, including loan payments and accounts payable balances.
The debt-to-revenue ratio is a financial measure that compares a company's monthly debt payment to its monthly gross income.
The term cash flow refers to the net amount of cash and cash equivalents being transferred in and out of a company. Cash received represents inflows, while money spent represents outflows.
An expense is the cost of operations that a company incurs to generate revenue. As the popular saying goes, “it costs money to make money.”
Return on equity (ROE) is a measure of financial performance calculated by dividing net income by shareholders' equity.
HOW TO USE IT
Even if you are entirely a technical analyst, it's always a good practice to take a look at the company's fundamentals, in order to understand more about the heath of the business. Look for companies that beat expectations and show positive growth numbers.
Silen's Financials Debt & EquityThis Script shows Debt (red) & Equity (green), as well as Total Equity and Net Income in a preformatted way for a symbol. Total revenue's and Net income's visibility is turned off by default and can be activated in the indicator settings. 🍳
Disclaimer: Any content in this script can be completely replicated by using Tradingview's Build-In Financial Indicators: Total debt, Total equity, Net income and Total revenue. It requires a lot of formatting work to get them to this state though. 👌
However, you are going to need 4 Financial Indicators clogging 🚽 your screen. With this indicator you have them preformatted as an overlay on your chart so you know exactly what's going on with your ticker's financials. 💰
I recommend only using Debt & Equity OR Total Equity & Net Income together. Although displaying all 4 indicators together is possible, it will make your chart quite messy.
This is how the indicator looks like for Total equity and Net Income:
This Script (2) is part of a Series that will contain 3 scripts to help you easily evaluate if a stock is trading in harmony with its fundamentals or not. ☯
Script 1 already exists:
Script 3 will be a Fair Value Indicator. 📣
Script 1 and 2 combined will look like this: 🌄
If you have any questions, let me know! 🙂
P1 FundamentalsP1 is because to me, this is a priority 1 indicator, so I have P1 and P2 indicators ordered on the favorite list.
What can you check on the selection pane?
On “period”, you can show the data related to:
the fiscal quarters
or the fiscal years.
You can select a pack of financial data that I have organized in sections:
Revenue & earnings
EPS & DPS (EPS, EPS estimate, DPS and dividend payout ratio )
Debt (total debt, total equity and cash & equivalents)
Returns (ROE, ROIC, ROA and R&D revenue to ratio)
I recommend to just select one of them, in other case the chart is a mess.
Any feedback on the code is welcome!!
