The US Recession Indicator is designed to identify recessions as they happen, using two reputable indicators that have accurately foreseen all past recessions since 1969. Unlike the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) which determines recession dates after the fact, this indicator seeks to spot recessions in real-time. When both of these distinct metrics...
The Global Unemployment rate estimates what is the rate of unemployment of the whole world, taking same data from multiple countries and normalizing them.
It includes the Eurozone + 19 countries from all the continents, which are some of the richest countries as well as some of the most populous.
It sadly does not include India as its unemployment data on...
This is an indicator that uses 6 different metrics to determine the combined probability of a recession and compares the high probability warning periods against actual historical periods of recession.
GREEN tells us that the referenced recession indicators are not exhibiting any warning. Observe the long stretches of “all-green” in between recessionary periods...
It's bear market so let's have a look at the misery index.
Misery index = inflation(%) + unemployment (%)
It's only possible to use this chart on the monthly (as misery index is updated monthly), but just for fun I added a strategy to it. If misery index increases you short and you go long when MI decreases.
p.s. the band is pretty cool too
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (idea by Claudia Sahm) based on US national unemployment rate.
I added an enhanced feature (optional) that uses slight variation in Sahm's idea and is usable to detect oversold stocks/crypto.
This model uses a Smoothed RSI to measure the momentum of the Civilian Unemployment Rate as published by FRED. The behavior of the unemployment rate makes it ideal for applying momentum-based timing techniques because it tends to rise sharply in a short time period and then declines gradually over a longer period. Using other basic momentum-based timing techniques...