The Good
Recovery off lows: That sharp reversal from ~$165 back above $230 shows strong buyer support. The +36% bounce (highlighted on chart) is impressive.
Trend alignment: Shorter EMAs are stacked above longer ones again, suggesting bullish momentum is back.
Volume: Decent participation on the rebound, not a weak drift higher.
The Bad
Heavy resistance overhead: $235–$240 is a supply zone. Price has stalled there multiple times, and you can see past rejection points at 235, 260. This area must be cleared for continuation.
Lower high risk: Unless AAPL breaks above $260, it could be setting up a “lower high” compared to past peaks (Feb & July 2024).
Valuation risk: Apple isn’t cheap right now. Macro risk (Fed cuts, consumer spending slowdown, China supply chain issues) could make it more vulnerable than Nvidia/semis.
The Ugly
Previous deep drawdowns: AAPL saw nearly a -36% correction not long ago. That’s a reminder this is not a low-risk hold anymore. One earnings miss or weak iPhone cycle could re-trigger that.
Crowded trade: Everyone owns Apple. Hedge funds, ETFs, retail. If big money rotates out, selling pressure is brutal.
Cost vs. Benefit
Benefit: If Apple breaks $240 convincingly, next stop is likely $260 (prior high). That’s ~12% upside.
Cost: If it fails here and rolls over, you could be looking at a drop back to $215 (near 50-day/200-day confluence) or even $200 (~15% downside).
Recovery off lows: That sharp reversal from ~$165 back above $230 shows strong buyer support. The +36% bounce (highlighted on chart) is impressive.
Trend alignment: Shorter EMAs are stacked above longer ones again, suggesting bullish momentum is back.
Volume: Decent participation on the rebound, not a weak drift higher.
The Bad
Heavy resistance overhead: $235–$240 is a supply zone. Price has stalled there multiple times, and you can see past rejection points at 235, 260. This area must be cleared for continuation.
Lower high risk: Unless AAPL breaks above $260, it could be setting up a “lower high” compared to past peaks (Feb & July 2024).
Valuation risk: Apple isn’t cheap right now. Macro risk (Fed cuts, consumer spending slowdown, China supply chain issues) could make it more vulnerable than Nvidia/semis.
The Ugly
Previous deep drawdowns: AAPL saw nearly a -36% correction not long ago. That’s a reminder this is not a low-risk hold anymore. One earnings miss or weak iPhone cycle could re-trigger that.
Crowded trade: Everyone owns Apple. Hedge funds, ETFs, retail. If big money rotates out, selling pressure is brutal.
Cost vs. Benefit
Benefit: If Apple breaks $240 convincingly, next stop is likely $260 (prior high). That’s ~12% upside.
Cost: If it fails here and rolls over, you could be looking at a drop back to $215 (near 50-day/200-day confluence) or even $200 (~15% downside).
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và ấn phẩm không có nghĩa là và không cấu thành, tài chính, đầu tư, kinh doanh, hoặc các loại lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị khác được cung cấp hoặc xác nhận bởi TradingView. Đọc thêm trong Điều khoản sử dụng.
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và ấn phẩm không có nghĩa là và không cấu thành, tài chính, đầu tư, kinh doanh, hoặc các loại lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị khác được cung cấp hoặc xác nhận bởi TradingView. Đọc thêm trong Điều khoản sử dụng.