AAPL Pre-Earnings Put

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Market Analysis

Looking at Apple AAPL ahead of today's earnings announcement, I've identified a compelling pre-earnings put opportunity. AAPL has shown mixed momentum recently with the stock trading near $211 after experiencing a 5.21% increase last week, bringing its market cap to approximately $3.19 trillion.

Instrument Details:

AAPL May 2, 2025 $200 PUT
Entry: $0.74
Target: $1.48 (100% gain)
Stop-Loss: $0.37 (50% risk)
Position Size: 1 contract
Entry Timing: Pre-earnings close (Today)

Technical Rationale & Market Context

Recent market sentiment data indicates Apple has a news sentiment score of 0.66, which is lower than the Computer and Technology sector average of 0.77. Short interest has increased by 0.71%, suggesting declining investor sentiment. Joby Aviation This divergence between price action and sentiment creates our setup opportunity.

Apple faces heightened volatility expectations with the options market showing speculative interest between the $200-$220 range. Tonight's earnings report is critical as investors seek clarity on how Apple plans to navigate the ongoing US-China trade tensions and recent App Store legal challenges.

Risk/Reward Analysis

With the expected post-earnings move of 6%, our position has a favorable risk/reward profile:

Maximum profit: 100% ($0.74 to $1.48)
Maximum loss: 50% ($0.74 to $0.37)
Confidence level: 65%
Breakeven: AAPL needs to drop below $199.26 by expiration

Catalysts & Exit Strategy
The main catalyst is tonight's earnings report after market close. I expect the current valuation may face challenges if:

Revenue guidance disappoints
iPhone sales show weakness in key markets
Services growth fails to meet expectations

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