AMD: Is there a case to be short
An update to my original AMD post
We know the semiconductor space is very cyclical, and coming off the back of a number of poor earnings ($MU, $NVDA) it's possible we could see a large slowdown in the space. Tradewar concerns seem to hit these stocks hard, especially due to overseas manufactured chips. It's possible the holiday season could bring in solid Q4 earnings.
To me the financials looks neutral with Q3 Revs lower but with a slight beat in EPS. It seems guidance on both Revs and EPS are below for Q4.
EV/SALES is 3.6x against a historical peak of 3.0x
The technicals look like an unwinding in AMD could ensue should the cycle deteriorate. The comps would begin to tell but going off general sentiment it seems rationalisation of a small short bet down to at least $17 shouldn't be too hard.
We know the semiconductor space is very cyclical, and coming off the back of a number of poor earnings ($MU, $NVDA) it's possible we could see a large slowdown in the space. Tradewar concerns seem to hit these stocks hard, especially due to overseas manufactured chips. It's possible the holiday season could bring in solid Q4 earnings.
To me the financials looks neutral with Q3 Revs lower but with a slight beat in EPS. It seems guidance on both Revs and EPS are below for Q4.
EV/SALES is 3.6x against a historical peak of 3.0x
The technicals look like an unwinding in AMD could ensue should the cycle deteriorate. The comps would begin to tell but going off general sentiment it seems rationalisation of a small short bet down to at least $17 shouldn't be too hard.
