Bear market rally over??
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As noted earlier, deep upside corrections would result in another corrective wave to the downside instead of an impulse. Since I haven't seen 3 waves to the downside yet, I am assuming that downside continuation will continue tomorrow with a target of 85-89. Afterwards, I am expecting this downside corrective portion to complete and an upside corrective wave to blast through 100. Obviously, upside continuation above 97.27 would negate this forecast.
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If the count is correct, looking for completion of wave C by April 14 early in the day, at which point I will flip to the long side. I'm still estimating 85-89 before I close my short position, but leaning more towards 85 and change. A rally above 96.07 before completion would invalidate the downside.
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Moving stop down to 95.01.
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The C wave is beginning to take on the structure of a terminal wave, which is possible in wave 5's and wave c's, but still requires one more leg down to complete. Price has remained buoyant today, and if it were going to be an impulse, then I would have expected price action to be far more bearish. The positive CPI data could be to blame in part. At this point, I will be closing out on the next leg down a little below 91. I will flip long at that point.
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An impulse is still possible, although due to certain market data that came into focus, I like the terminal wave. It will be easy to tell if an impulse eventually develops because price action will blast through the 91 level likely taking the structure of the posted pic. In the event of an impulse, I like 85-86.
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Lowered stop to 94.12.
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Imo the short trade is not going to happen. Price is far too buoyant for it to be an impulse. I'm expecting a terminal with a possible truncated C wave. I am starting to close out and picking up a long position. I will transfer my analysis to the next trade setup, which I'm hoping for an eventual price of 115. I picked up 4 points here.
Possible target 78 to 80 in the event this is downside follow through as an impulse. I will consider deep upside corrections in this move as indication the upside is not complete, and if this is the case, look for 85-88 before I close my position.