Amazon | Fundamental Analysis | MUST READ...

Amazon shares declined after the e-commerce and cloud behemoth released its Q3 results last week.

The company's total revenue was up 15% year over year to $110.8 billion but did not match analysts' forecasts by $850 million. Net income fell 49% to $3.2 billion, or $6.12 per share, also below expectations by $2.81.

For the next quarter, Amazon expects revenue to grow 4% to 12% year-over-year, compared with analysts' forecast of 13% growth. The company looks for its operating profit to fall 57%-100% as rising labor costs, inflation, supply chain disruptions and growing investments in digital media drive margins down.

These headline numbers have been terrifying for analysts, but does Amazon's declining stocks after the release of its financial results really represent a buying opportunity for long-term investors?

During the pandemic, Amazon saw accelerating growth as more people made purchases online. Increased use of cloud services also contributed to the growth of its Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud infrastructure platform.

In 2020, Amazon's revenue grew 38%, its operating margin increased 70 basis points to 5.9% (even despite higher COVID-19 expenses), and its earnings per share (EPS) rose 82%. Over the past three quarters, however, this momentum has waned as more businesses have reopened.

To address these unfavorable year-over-year comparisons, Amazon emphasizes its two-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) as a clearer measure of long-term growth. In the third quarter, Amazon's total revenue was still growing at a two-year CAGR of 25 percent -- compared with a low 20 percent growth rate before the pandemic -- so the company's business is still expanding.

In the third quarter, Amazon's online retailer revenues rose only 3% year over year to $49.94 billion. The bears can point to this figure, which is hard to compare to the 37 percent growth a year earlier and say that Amazon's days of high growth are over.

But Amazon's four other growth engines -- third-party marketplace, subscription services, AWS, and the advertising business, which accounts for most of the "other" revenue -- all posted double-digit revenue growth in the third quarter.

Together, these faster-growing businesses accounted for 51% of Amazon's revenue - up from 46% in the previous quarter.

Investors should also keep in mind that AWS generates much higher-margin revenue than Amazon's retail business, so it accounts for most of Amazon's operating income. In the third quarter, AWS operating income rose 38% year over year to $4.88 billion - more than 100% of Amazon's total operating income - as it offset the combined operating losses of the North American and international retail businesses.

Steady revenue growth at AWS indicates that the company will continue to maintain its lead over Microsoft's Azure in the cloud platform market, and the continued growth in operating income should partially offset Amazon's planned $5 billion increase in fourth-quarter operating expenses in retail ($4 billion) and digital media ($1 billion).

Analysts expect Amazon's revenues and profits to grow 23% and 26%, respectively, for the full year. Next year, they expect revenues to grow 18 percent and profits to grow 25 percent as the company's year-over-year growth stabilizes.

We have to accept these estimates with a degree of doubt, but we have seen Amazon go through many cycles of cost increases in the past. Every time Amazon says it will increase its spending, it attracts some "bears" who claim that the company is losing momentum without considering that it is still leading the fast-growing e-commerce and cloud infrastructure markets.

Typically, when a market outsider increases its spending to catch up with market leaders, it's a red flag, but when a market leader like Amazon increases its spending to maintain its dominance, it's a sign of strength. So, investors today shouldn't worry about the company's slowing sales growth or rising costs.

After the latest pullback, Amazon stock is trading at less than 50 times forward earnings and just three times next year's sales. This is a very favorable price compared to many other fast-growing e-commerce and cloud stocks, and we can expect Amazon stock to rise significantly in the next few years.