ASTS Earnings & Options Breakdown (2025-08-11)

🚀 ASTS Earnings & Options Breakdown (2025-08-11) 🚀

### AST SpaceMobile \ASTS — **Moderate Bearish Bias Ahead**

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### 🔥 Quick Take:

* **Revenue:** +43.6% TTM growth but insanely high P/S ratio (\~3445) signals overvaluation.
* **Margins:** Operating margin -8769% — huge cash burn. Free cash flow negative \$268M+.
* **Guidance:** Historical misses with -87.5% surprise avg, only 14% beat rate last 7 quarters!
* **Analyst Targets:** Wide \$30–64 range, average \$48.56 — optimism vs risk mismatch.

### 💡 Options Flow Insights:

* Heavy **put open interest** at \$43 & \$45 strikes (36K+ contracts)
* Bearish skew with minimal call interest → institutional caution
* Potential for fast downside if key supports break

### 📉 Technicals:

* Price trading at **\$46.63**, below 20-day MA (\$53.47)
* RSI oversold at 24.5 → weak momentum
* Volume down vs 10-day average → distribution alert
* Support at \$45, resistance at \$50

### 🌍 Macro Context:

* Satellite tech growth potential but cash flow & regulatory hurdles
* Low-volatility market environment means amplified beta risk (ASTS beta 2.33)

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### 🎯 Trade Setup:

**Buy \$43 Put — Exp 08/15**

* Entry: \$1.80
* Stop Loss: \$0.90 (50%)
* Profit Target: \$3.60 (200%)
* Position Size: Max 2% portfolio
* Timing: Enter pre-earnings close, exit 2 hours post-earnings if no target hit

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### 🔥 Why This Trade?

* History of big earnings misses + bearish options flow
* Technical weakness & low volume pre-earnings
* High risk of downside volatility post-report

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### ⚠️ Risk/Reward Summary:

| Metric | Value |
| ------------- | -------------- |
| Entry Price | \$1.80 |
| Profit Target | \$3.60 (+100%) |
| Stop Loss | \$0.90 (-50%) |
| Confidence | 75% |

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### 📊 JSON Trade Signal for API / Bots:

```json
{
"instrument": "ASTS",
"direction": "put",
"strike": 43.00,
"expiry": "2025-08-15",
"confidence": 75,
"profit_target": 3.60,
"stop_loss": 0.90,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 1.80,
"entry_timing": "pre_earnings_close",
"earnings_time": "AMC",
"expected_move": 12.0,
"iv_rank": 0.85,
"signal_publish_time": "2025-08-11T14:19:32-04:00"
}
```

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# 🚨 **ASTS ALERT: BEARISH EARNINGS PLAY IN MOTION — POSITION ACCORDINGLY!** 🚨